UkrAgroConsult revised upward the 2023/24 estimates of Ukrainian grain harvest and exports

UkrAgroConsult

Article author:

Maryna Marynych

Grain Market Analyst

On June 16, the State Statistics Committee of Ukraine published the final numbers of the 2022 harvest.

Total grain production was at 53.9 M mt (-37% from 2021), incl.

• wheat: 20.7 M mt (-35% from 2021),
• barley: 5.6 M mt (-40%),
• corn: 26.2 M mt (-37%).

These official numbers will be used in UkrAgroConsult’s S&D estimations for 2022-2023 years.

Since a start of the season (for corn – from September) including May grain exports amounted to:

• wheat: 15.5 M mt (-17% season-on-season),
• barley: 2.65 M mt (-54%),
• corn: 24.1 M mt (+14%).

Turkey remains the main buyer of Ukrainian wheat, followed by Romania. As for Romania – the biggest share of Ukrainian grain was transited through this country. In early May, the European Commission banned Ukrainian grains imports to Romania and four other neighboring countries (Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia).

Due to poor exports logistics, barley shipment in the second half of the 2022/23 season (February-June 2023) were unusually big compared to average, with monthly exports from 180 to 230 K mt. Although China has increased its Ukrainian barley imports in the last few months, China still remains the fourth largest importer. Ahead of China are Turkey and the EU countries.

Corn remains the largest export commodity in Ukraine. China is the biggest Ukrainian corn importers. However, due to grain deal uncertainties, European countries are the main destination for corn shipments. Sure, major share of corn delivered to Romania is transshipped to larger vessels in the Constanta port with shipments to other Africa and Asia countries. To the surprise of the market, the “grain corridor” did not work so badly in June. For 2022/23 season (Sept. 2022-June 22, 2023) 25.9 M mt of corn were shipped to foreign markets. However, start of the 2023 harvest exports in July, wheat and barley are expected to slightly push corn in the overall structure of Ukrainian grain exports.

According to the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center, Ukraine received so much rain in April 2023 that this moisture maintained sufficient soil moisture in most areas under winter crops, even during the rain-free period in May and June. The weather suggests higher-than-expected yields of the winter crops.

Prospects of spring crops yields are slightly worse. April rains slowed down sowing, and then in May, when seeds needed moisture in the upper soil layers, there was no rain at all. However, conditions of the early spring crops were not deteriorated drastically, as cool weather prevailed in May, preventing rapid evaporation. Thus, the potential for yield at average level still there for the spring grains.

As of June 22, 2023, spring grains and pulses areas amounted to 5672 K ha (434 K ha less y/y). The lagging behind last year’s areas is primarily due to the reduction of spring barley and corn area. However, although last year corn planted area was officially reported at 4.6 M ha, the harvested area eventually decreased to 4.12 M ha. That is why UkrAgroConsult is in no hurry to raise the 2023 corn area estimates to the level indicated by Ministry of AgriPolicy of Ukraine. UkrAgroConsult also considers possible weather risks ahead, the likelihood of which has increased after the explosion of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Station. A desert is currently forming on the site of the Kakhovka reservoir, which, in the absence of normal rainfall, will contribute to drought in southern and central Ukraine.

Updated 2023/24 MY crop and export estimates can be found in the full version of this article. Full version of the article is available to subscribers  of ‘BLACK SEA GRAIN’ Weekly Report by UkrAgroConsult.

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Tags: China, supply and demand balance, corn, crop forecast, Turkey, UkrAgroConsult, export, grain, barley, Romania, EU, wheat, crop condition