UkrAgroConsult reducing its forecast for Russia’s 2019/20 wheat production and exports

– UkrAgroConsult has reduced its forecast for Russia’s 2019 wheat crop. It was adjusted due to a decrease in both yield and planted acreage. According to preliminary information from the Russian Ag Ministry, 27.84 Ml ha was planted to wheat (up 2% from 27.26 Ml ha in 2018);

– it should be noted that Russian wheat yield is falling. While a week ago it was comparable with the 2018 level, this figure then slid to 1.2% below last year by July 16 (with nearly the same harvested area at 8 Ml ha, or some 30% complete). In Russia, the average wheat yield while harvesting is at a four-year low now. It is comparable with that in 2015, when Russia experienced a crop shortfall;

– a larger crop is possible at the expense of spring wheat, as it enjoys favorable growing conditions for now. As a reminder, spring wheat accounts for some 26-28% of Russia’s wheat production;