U.S. wheat intentions exceed expectations

Growers in the United States intend to plant slightly more spring wheat and a lot more durum than last year.

They plan to seed 11.34 million acres of spring wheat, a 1.2 percent increase over last year and 2.03 million acres of durum, a 21 percent bump, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Both numbers were well above what the trade was forecasting, which was 10.89 million acres of spring wheat and 1.65 million acres of durum.

Growers in the U.S. appear to be happier with prices of the two crops and seeding conditions than farmers north of the 49th parallel. Canadian producers told Statistics Canada they intend to plant 19.2 million acres of spring wheat, a 1.2 percent decline from last year, and 6.3 million acres of durum, a 5.1 percent increase.

“They have a little bit better moisture situation than we have,” said MarketsFarm analyst Bruce Burnett.

Durum is the big winner, with Canada’s seeded acreage estimated to be the largest in 24 years, while the U.S. crop is expected to be the biggest in six years.

DTN’s Cliff Jamieson is forecasting combined production of 7.64 million tonnes in 2024-25, one million tonnes above the five-year average. He used Agriculture Canada’s 2024 prairie yield estimate along with the five-year average of U.S. yields to arrive at that number.

Burnett said U.S. durum stocks are relatively tight. The USDA estimated it at 36.6 million bushels as of March 1, up two percent from year-ago levels.

“It’s still fairly tight from a historical perspective,” he said.

The USDA does not break out stocks by class of common wheat. But it does break it down by state, which provides a good clue about spring wheat stocks.

North Dakota had 176 million bu. of wheat as of March 1, a 13 percent increase over last year, while Montana had 89 million bu., a 33 percent increase.

So, supplies of U.S. spring wheat are likely up substantially year over year despite that class of wheat leading the way in the U.S. export program this year.

Burnett said U.S. spring wheat sales have benefitted from the short hard red winter wheat crop. But that is unlikely to be the case in 2024-25.

U.S. growers planted 34.14 million acres of winter wheat last fall, a seven percent reduction from the previous year. But the crop is in far better condition than it was at this time last year, with 56 percent in the good-to-excellent categories as of March 31, up from 28 percent last year.

Burnett is forecasting a big increase in U.S. hard red winter wheat production, which will provide significant competition for Canadian spring wheat by mid-June.

The acreage numbers indicate there will be slightly more spring wheat production in North America in 2024, but Burnett cautioned that it is still bone dry in much of Western Canada’s growing region, which could impact yields.

“It’s something to be worried about,” he said.

He anticipates strong demand for durum wheat in the upcoming year. It has been dry in Turkey and portions of Europe and North Africa, although Spain and Morocco just received a big dose of precipitation.

But he still anticipates stiff export competition from Turkey, as well as Russia, Kazakhstan and Australia, where the demise of El Nino should boost production prospects.

Tags: Canada, Production, crop, yield, stocks, plant, durum, spring wheat, prices, United States