U.S. wheat futures fell about 1.5 percent on Wednesday

U.S. wheat futures fell about 1.5 percent on Wednesday as concerns about global export demand and a year-over-year rise in U.S. inventories overshadowed support from a shrinking wheat crop in Russia, analysts said.

Corn futures rose while soybeans declined after the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply and demand reports offered few market-impacting surprises.

Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) July wheat fell 9-1/2 cents to $6.17 a bushel, but remained above a five-week low of $6.05-1/2 set Tuesday.

July CBOT corn contracts rose 4-3/4 cents to close at $4.54-1/4 a bushel, while July soybean contracts closed down 3/4 cents to $11.77-1/4 a bushel. Trade in soybeans was choppy, with the July contract up at times.

Wheat futures trimmed losses after the U.S. Department of Agriculture cut its forecast for Russia’s 2024-2025 wheat crop to 83 million tons, a three-year low, down from 88 million tons last month. The USDA had forecast exports from Russia, the world’s largest supplier, at 48 million tons, down from a May forecast of 52 million tons.

However, the USDA raised its estimate for the U.S. wheat crop in 2024/25 to 1.875 billion bushels, a five-year high, from its May forecast of 1.858 billion. The government also raised its forecast for the amount of world wheat remaining at the end of the 2023/24 marketing year to 259.56 million tons, beating the range of trade expectations.

“We have lowered the Russian wheat harvest, but the problem is that the share of world wheat stocks has increased. The bottom line is that the wheat market needs demand or (futures) will continue to go lower,” Tom Fritz, a partner at EFG Group in Chicago, told Reuters.

Corn futures closed modestly higher, with robust domestic cash markets supporting the nearby July contract. Farmers are reluctant to sell stored corn at current prices, and that factor supported Midwest cash basis offers.

But relatively high U.S. corn and soybean crop ratings hung over the market, limiting price gains.

“The world is coming to the realization that we have plenty of corn and soybeans as long as we have a good crop in North America. And right now this crop is off to a very good start,” said Jake Hanley, managing director of Teukrium Trading.

Tags: prices, wheat