U.S.: Crop carryout high this year

Carryouts for the 2024-25 crop year are expected to be on the rise for the main grains and oilseeds grown in the United States, and that means falling prices, says an analyst.

That was one of the main takeaways from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s 100th annual Agricultural Outlook Forum.

The wheat outlook is particularly grim.

“The carryout for 2024-25 is forecast to rise 17 percent to nearly 770 million bushels,” said USDA agricultural economist Jake Vuillemin.

That is despite an anticipated five percent drop in plantings to 47 million acres.

Production is forecast at 1.9 million bushels, a five percent increase over last year due to vastly improved winter wheat conditions.

Drought has lifted in Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, eastern Colorado and Montana, supporting a two percent rebound in average yields to 49.5 bu. per acre.

The USDA anticipates farmers will harvest 82 percent of the wheat that they plant, up from 75 percent last year.

Exports are forecast to rise to 775 million bu., a seven percent improvement over last year’s 52-year low.

However, that is still low historically speaking. Russia has come on like gangbusters. It is forecast to ship out 14.5 million more tonnes of wheat in 2023-24 than its next biggest competitor, the European Union.

“This very competitive environment has made it difficult for the U.S. to gain market share, particularly given the price sensitivity of some of the customers served by Russia and the EU,” said Vuillemin.

U.S. corn carryout is forecast at 2.53 billion bu., the highest in 35 years. The stocks-to-use ratio is pegged at 17.2 percent, the highest since 2005-06.

The USDA is forecasting 91 million acres of the cereal crop, down from 94.6 million acres last year.

Supplies are pegged at a record 17.24 billion bu. as sharply higher carry-in from the 2023-24 crop offsets a two percent drop in production.

The USDA is forecasting increases in both exports and domestic feed demand due to larger supplies and lower prices.

Global corn trade has increased by 65 million tonnes since 2014-15, mainly due to China but also from demand growth in the EU, Vietnam and Mexico.

However, Brazil and Argentina have been capturing the lion’s share of that increase in global demand.

U.S. soybean ending stocks are forecast at 435 million bu., a 38 percent increase over last year.

Production is pegged at a record 4.51 billion bu., an eight percent increase due to improved yields and a 4.7 percent increase in plantings to 87.5 million acres.

Total supplies of 4.84 billion bu. would be the second highest on record after the 2018-19 crop year.

Exports are expected to climb nine percent to 1.88 billion bu., while crush will set a fourth consecutive record at 2.4 billion bu.

Soaring biofuel demand has been the crop’s savior in recent years. It accounts for 60 percent of California’s total diesel pool.

Climbing carryouts are hurting the price forecast for all three crops.

The season average farm price for corn in 2024-25 is estimated at US$4.40 per bu., down $0.40 from last year.

The soybean price is pegged at $11.20 per bu., a $1.45 drop.

Wheat is experiencing the biggest percentage dip with the average price forecast at $6, a $1.20 decline.

Tags: Outlook, wheat, exports, crop, corn, forecast, USDA, carryout, price, poduction, United States, soybeans, Grains, oilseeds, ending stocks