The USDA continued to lower its global production forecasts and estimate of final oilseed stocks

In the November supply and demand balance, USDA experts slightly lowered their forecast for global oilseed production in 2021/22 MG by 0.2 million tons to 628.03 million tons (603.32 million tons in 2020/21 MG) due to an unexpected decrease in the soybean crop by 1.1 million tons due to a decrease in the US harvest forecast. This came as a surprise to traders, who predicted an increase in the forecast of soybean production in the United States, which pushed soybean prices up.

The forecast for global oilseed processing was increased by 1 million tons to 527.2 million tons (509.33 million tons in my 2020/21), which led to a decrease in the forecast of final oilseed reserves at the end of 2021/22 mg by 1.3 million tons to 115.19 million tons.

The soybean balance for my 2021/22 was changed in comparison with October estimates as follows:

• the forecast of initial reserves was raised by 0.95 million tons to 100.11 million tons,
• the production estimate was lowered by 1.13 million tons to 384.01 million tons (366.23 million tons in 2020/21 mg and 339 million tons in 2019/20 MG), due to a decrease in production in the United States by 0.63 million tons, and Argentina by 1.5 million tons, which will be offset by an increase in production in India by 0.9 million tons.
• consumption forecast increased by 0.76 million tons to 378.03 million tons (363.05 million tons in my 2020/21),
• the forecast for final reserves was lowered by 0.79 million tons to 103.78 million tons, including for the United States by 0.56 million tons against analysts ‘ expectations for an increase in reserves to 105.48 million tons

In the October report, the forecast for soybean production in the United States was raised by 2 million tons due to an increase in soybean yield estimates from 50.6 to 51.5 bushels/acre (50.2 bushels/acre in 2020/21 MG), but in the November report, the yield forecast was lowered to 51.2 bushels/acre, which lowered the production forecast to 120.43 million tons.

Global soybean exports will decrease by 1.0 million tons to 172.1 million tons, due to a decrease in e-exports from Argentina by 1 million tons to 5.35 million tons and from the United States by 1.09 million tons to 55.79 million tons (61.66 million tons in 2020/21) due to low demand from China, which is partially offset by an increase in exports from Brazil by 1 million tons to 94 million tons.

The forecast for soybean imports to China in 2020/21 MG was raised by 0.76 million tons to 99.76 million tons, but for 2021/22 mg, the import forecast was lowered by 1 million tons to 100 million tons due to low purchase rates.

November soybean futures on the Chicago SWOT jumped 1.8% to 4 440.7/ton yesterday under pressure from the updated balance sheet.

The forecast for global rapeseed production in my 2021/22 was slightly increased by 0.15 million tons to 67.5 million tons (72.66 million tons in my 2020/21)

The forecast for global sunflower production in my 2021/22 was also slightly raised by 0.15 million tons to 56.0 million tons (49.14 million tons in my 2020/21) due to a slight increase in production in the EU.

Production estimates for Ukraine and Russia were left unchanged.

The oilseed market will remain under pressure from an increase in supply compared to last season and a continued decline in demand due to rising world prices.

Grain Trade

Tags: China, sunflower, Brazil, soybean, India, rapeseed, USA, Argentina