The inventory report supported wheat prices, but increased pressure on soybean and corn prices

USDA experts in their quarterly report increased estimates of soybean and corn stocks as of September 1, 2021, but lowered estimates of wheat stocks. In addition, they raised the forecast for soybean production, and lowered forecasts for the wheat and corn harvest, which surprised the market and increased pressure on prices.

The estimate of corn production in the United States in 2020/21 MG was reduced by 2 million tons to 358.5 million tons due to a decrease in sowing and harvesting areas to 90.7 and 82.3 million acres, respectively, as well as a decrease in yield by 0.6 bushels/acre to 171.4 bushels/acre or 10.75 t/ha.

As a result of reduced exports amid increased competition and falling ethanol production, the final corn reserves in my 2020/21 increased to 31.5 million tons, which is 36% lower than as of September 1, 2020, but exceeds analysts ‘ forecasts.

December corn futures at the Chicago SWOT yesterday fell by only 0 0.88/ton to. 211.3/ton, despite an increase in stocks and a decrease in export sales for the week by 89% to 370.3 thousand tons.export sales since the beginning of the season have already reached 25.32 million tons, which is 2.8% ahead of last year’s pace.

​​​​​​​​​​The forecast for soybean production in the United States in 2020/21 MG was increased by 1.2 million tons to 114.7 million tons due to an increase in sowing and harvesting areas by 0.3 million acres to 83.4 and 82.6 million acres, respectively, as well as an increase in yields by 0.8 bushels/acre to 51 bushels/acre or 3.43 t/ha.

The final soybean reserves in the United States in the 2020/21 season amounted to 6.9 million tons, which, thanks to active exports to China, is 51% lower than as of September 1, 2020, although it exceeds analysts ‘ forecasts by 47%.

November soybean futures at Chicago SWOT fell 2.5% to.460/ton yesterday, although export sales of soybeans from the United States for the week were quite high 1.09 million tons, and in general in the season reached 24.3 million tons.

In the new report, USDA experts estimated wheat production in the United States in 2020/21 MG at 49.8 million tons, which exceeds the forecast for September, and the final reserves of the season at 48.44 million tons, which is 18% lower than on September 1, 2020 and 4% lower than analysts ‘ forecasts.

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Tags: wheat, report, corn, USDA, prices, soybean