The European Commission lowered the forecast of wheat and corn production in the EU

Analysts of the European Commission in the September report lowered the forecast of wheat and corn production in the EU, but raised the forecast of total grain production, and also expect a significant increase in imports, Nasdaq reports.

In particular, the forecast of wheat harvest in the EU in 2023/24 MY is expected at 125.3 mln tonnes, which is lower than the previous forecast (126.1 mln tonnes) and slightly lower than the result of the previous season (125.7 mln tonnes).

In addition, the corn harvest forecast was lowered to 59.8 (61.7) mln tonnes, which is higher than the result in 2022/23 MY (52.1 mln tonnes).

As for the imports, the European Commission analysts forecast a significant increase in wheat supplies to the EU in the current season – up to 6.5 mln tonnes compared to the previous estimate of 4 mln tonnes, while corn imports may increase to 20 (17) mln tonnes.

Against this background, the experts made upward adjustments to the stocks of soft wheat in the EU in 2023/24 MY – up to 17.8 (16.3) mln tonnes and corn – up to 17.8 (17.3) mln tonnes.

Also, according to the report of the European Commission, the forecast of barley production was lowered by 200 thsd tonnes to 48.4 mln tonnes (51.5 mln tonnes in 2022/23 MY).

The analysts noted that the biggest downward adjustments of the grain harvest were made for Spain (-16% per month), Hungary (-5.8%) and Romania (-4.3%). In turn, experts significantly increased the forecast of grain harvest in Poland – by 5.8% per month.

European Commission analysts left the forecast for European grain exports almost unchanged, namely wheat at 32 million tons and barley at 10 million tons.

As for oilseeds, the forecast of rapeseed production in the EU in 2023/24 MY was slightly increased to 19.6 mln tonnes compared to 19.1 mln tonnes in the previous forecas

Tags: wheat, rapeseed, crop forecast, corn, EU