The European Commission has lowered the forecast of wheat exports from the EU

In their report, the European Commission analysts lowered the forecast of soft wheat exports from the EU in 2023/24 MY to 31 mln tonnes, compared to 32 mln tonnes in the previous forecast.

Moreover, it is forecasted that the volume of grain shipments from the EU will be 22% lower than in the previous season amid high competition from Russia.

In turn, the lower export forecast contributed to the increase in the forecast of wheat stocks in the countries of the bloc in the current season to 19.1 mln tonnes compared to 17.8 mln tonnes according to previous expectations, which is slightly lower than in 2022/23 MY (19.3 mln tonnes).

The European Commission slightly increased the wheat harvest forecast by 0.2 mln tonnes to 125.5 mln tonnes.

Also, according to the European Commission’s forecast, barley production in 2023/24 MY may decrease to the lowest level in the last 12 years – 47.5 mln tonnes (-0.9 mln tonnes compared to September estimate). The deterioration of the harvest is expected amid the drought in Spain and Scandinavia, which are the main grain producing regions.

The European Commission raised its forecast for barley imports to the EU this season to 1.7 (+0.2) million tons.

Analysts left the forecast of corn production in the EU unchanged at 59.9 mln tonnes, which is higher than the result in 2022/23 MY (53.1 mln tonnes).

The forecast of rapeseed harvest in 2023/24 MY was slightly increased by the European Commission experts to 19.8 (+0.2) mln tonnes, while the import forecast was lowered to 5.6 (-0.2) mln tonnes. In turn, the forecast for sunflower production this season was lowered to 10 (-0.5) mln tonnes.

Tags: crop forecast, corn, export, barley, EU, wheat, sunseed, rapeseed