The drop in world corn quotations to a 3-year low stopped price growth in Ukraine

Yesterday on the Chicago stock exchange, March corn futures fell by 1.3% to the lowest since December 2020 at 179.1 $/t (-6% for the month) amid improving weather in Brazil and slow exports from the United States.

Brazil in December exported 6.1 million tons of corn, which is almost equal to 6.24 million tons exported in December 2022 In January, the country plans to ship another 3.3 million tons of grain, which will increase competition with sellers from the United States and Ukraine, especially in the Chinese market.

In 2023/24 MY, the U.S. exported 12.8 mln tonnes of corn, which is 28% higher than last year, but the export forecast for the current season is 26% higher than in the previous one. To export the 53.3 mln tons forecasted by USDA, Ukraine needs to ship 5 mln tons of corn per month, although in the first 4 months of the season, the grain exports averaged only 3.2 mln tons.

During July 1-December 31, Ukraine exported 9.4 mln tonnes of corn, which is 32% lower than last year, but the export forecast for the current season is 28% lower than in the previous season, due to increased competition on the global market and reduced supplies to the EU. Amid the decline in exports and increase in production, the ending stocks of corn in 2023/24 MY may increase to 6.8 mln tonnes compared to 2.8 mln tonnes in 2022/23 MY.

Traders expect that in the new report, the USDA experts will adjust the estimates of harvested area, yield and production of corn for the United States, but this will not significantly affect the global balance.

In Ukraine, the export demand for corn remains high, and the 4% depreciation of the hryvnia against the dollar over the month has led to an increase in hryvnia prices to 6450-6550 UAH/t, while dollar prices are 155-158 USD/t for delivery to the Black Sea ports and 165-170 USD/t for delivery to the Danube ports.

Tags: Ukraine, corn, prices