The active export of Russian wheat increases the pressure on quotations

Despite the numerous complaints of the Russian authorities about restrictions on the export of Russian grain by Western sanctions, wheat supplies from the Russian Federation are reaching record levels, and new sales to Egypt are increasing the pessimism of sellers from the USA and Europe.

According to the Russian Grain Union, in the two months of the 2023/24 fiscal year, compared to the same period of the previous season, the export of grain crops increased by 1.6 times from 8.5 to 13.3 million tons, in particular wheat – by 1.5 times to 11 million tons. In August 2023 (after withdrawing from the grain agreement), the Russian Federation increased its grain exports by 32% compared to August 2022 to a 7-year high of 7.7 million tons, in particular barley – by 7% to 997,000 tons, corn – by 1.9 times to 212 thousand tons, wheat – by 36.6% to 6.5 million tons, which is slightly inferior to the record 6.6 million tons of August 2021/22 MY.

The IKAR agency increased the forecast of the grain harvest in the Russian Federation in 2023/24 from 139 to 140 million tons, in particular wheat – from 89.5 to 91 million tons, while the export forecast was increased from 61 to 64 million tons, in particular wheat – from 47, 5 to 49.5 million tons.

The Egyptian GASC bought 480,000 tons of Russian wheat from the Swiss trader Solaris at a price of $270/t C&F, although 240,000 tons of European wheat was contracted at a tender a week ago at a price of $275.75 and $279.49/t C&F. In 2022/23, Egypt increased wheat imports from the Russian Federation by 61.1% to 8.1 million tons.

Wheat quotes on world exchanges fell by 4.5-6.9% for the week, and by 3-15.9% for the month, which is the biggest drop since May 2022. Traders are selling wheat in anticipation of a new corn crop and against the background low demand from importers. Monday was a holiday in the US, and on Friday, September futures fell:

• by 1% to $208.5/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-4.5% for the week, -15.9% for the month),
• by 0.8% to $264.7/t – for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (-4.6%, -6.9%),
• by 0.1% to $269.7/t – for hard spring HRS-wheat in Minneapolis (-6.9%, -12.4%).

September wheat futures on Paris Euronext also fell by 0.8% to €219.25/t or $236.9/t yesterday (-6.4% for the week, -3% for the month).