TABLE-China keeps 2020/21 corn imports unchanged at 7 mln tonnes – agriculture ministry

China’s agriculture ministry on Thursday kept its forecast for corn imports in the 2020/21 year unchanged from last month’s 7 million tonnes, even as the global market expects imports to far exceed the number. The U.S. Department of Agriculture last month nearly doubled its forecast for China’s corn imports this year to 13 million tonnes because of soaring domestic prices and rising feed demand as the Chinese hog sector rebuilds after a deadly pig disease. An unofficial projection by the USDA’s attache in Beijing estimated imports to hit 22 million tonnes in the year through September 2021. In its monthly China Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (CASDE) report, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said that temperatures in the northeast are expected to be higher than a year ago with less rain, helping corn sales this year. “Effective supply will continue to increase and prices are expected to stabilize,” it said. The U.S. has already shipped more than 3 million tonnes of corn to China since October and China has booked almost 8 million tonnes more for the marketing year, according to USDA data from Dec. 3. The Chinese ministry kept all other forecasts unchanged from last month but slightly raised its forecast for 2020/21 sugar imports by 400,000 tonnes to 3.9 million tonnes. Key numbers from the monthly China Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (CASDE) are below: 2018/2019 2019/20 2020/21 2020/21 Percentage December November December change Estimate Forecast Forecast Corn – crop year Oct-Sept Planted 42.13 41.28 41.82 41.82 0.00% acreage (mln hectares) Output (mln 257.17 260.77 264.71 264.71 0.00% tonnes) Imports (mln 4.48 7.60 7.00 7.00 0.00% tonnes) Consumption 274.78 278.30 288.17 288.17 0.00% (mln tonnes) Exports (mln 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.00% tonnes) Balance (mln -13.15 -9.94 -16.48 -16.48 0.00% tonnes) Soybean – crop year Oct-Sept Planted 8.40 9.35 9.60 9.60 0.00% acreage (mln hectares) Output (mln 16.00 18.10 18.82 18.82 0.00% tonnes) Imports (mln 82.61 98.53 95.10 95.10 0.00% tonnes) Consumption 102.93 108.60 113.12 113.12 0.00% (mln tonnes) Exports (mln 0.12 0.90 0.15 0.15 0.00% tonnes) Balance (mln -4.44 7.94 0.65 0.65 0.00% tonnes) Cotton – crop year Sept-Aug Beginning 7.43 7.21 7.36 7.36 0.00% stocks (mln tonnes) Planted 3.37 3.30 3.21 3.21 0.00% acreage (mln hectares) Output (mln 6.04 5.80 5.85 5.85 0.00% tonnes) Imports (mln 2.03 1.60 2.00 2.00 0.00% tonnes) Consumption 8.24 7.23 8.00 8.00 0.00% (mln tonnes) Exports (mln 0.05 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.00% tonnes) Ending Stocks 7.21 7.36 7.16 7.16 0.00% (mln tonnes) Sugar – crop year Oct-Sept Planted 1.44 1.38 1.45 1.45 0.00% acreage (mln hectares) Cane 1.21 1.17 1.19 1.19 0.00% Beet 0.24 0.22 0.26 0.26 0.00% Output (mln 10.76 10.42 10.50 10.50 0.00% tonnes) Cane sugar 9.44 9.02 8.96 8.96 0.00% Beet sugar 1.32 1.39 1.54 1.54 0.00% Imports (mln 3.24 3.76 3.50 3.90 11.43% tonnes) Consumption 15.20 15.00 15.30 15.30 0.00% (mln tonnes) Exports (mln 0.19 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.00% tonnes) Balance (mln -1.40 -1.00 -1.48 -1.08 -27.03% tonnes) Edible oils – crop year Oct-Sept Output (mln 25.53 28.21 27.65 27.65 0.00% tonnes) Soybean oil 14.34 17.01 16.58 16.58 0.00% Rapeseed 5.69 5.65 5.26 5.26 0.00% Peanut oil 3.18 3.24 3.39 3.39 0.00% Imports (mln 8.55 9.27 8.45 8.45 0.00% tonnes) Palm oil 4.95 4.62 4.20 4.20 0.00% Rapeseed 1.51 1.90 1.80 1.80 0.00% Soybean oil 0.78 0.96 0.70 0.70 0.00% Consumption 33.38 32.9 33.82 33.82 0.00% (mln tonnes) Exports (mln 0.27 0.26 0.27 0.27 0.00% tonnes) Balance (mln 0.43 4.33 2.02 2.02 0.00% tonnes) CASDE includes beginning and ending stocks for cotton, which Reuters assumes to include the cotton held by state reserves. Therefore, ending stocks cited in this table are the beginning stocks plus the latest year’s crop and imports, minus consumption and exports. For all other products, CASDE only includes the balance at the end of the crop year. This appears to be the result of the crop output plus imports minus consumption and exports.

Reuters

Tags: China, corn imports