Strategie Grains cuts rapeseed crop forecast in EU to 10% below 2023

Consultancy Strategie Grains cut its forecast for this year’s rapeseed output in the European Union by 180,000 metric tons to 17.94 million tons, now 10% below last year’s harvest, due to wet weather in France and frosts in central Europe.

Heavy rains in the European Union’s largest rapeseed grower France since the autumn have delayed sowings, flooded fields and is hurting grain quality.

In contrast, late frosts recorded in April were not expected to have as much of a negative impact in France as in central EU countries such as the Czech Republic and Slovakia, the consultancy said in a report.

“The crops (in France) are mainly penalised by the frequency of rainfall and the waterlogging of fields,” it said, adding that some fields will need to be replanted.

In the second-largest rapeseed producer Germany, conditions were satisfactory for flowering with average temperatures close to seasonal norms.

Strategie Grains noted that the rapeseed balance would be tight next season due to the anticipated fall in output and low carry-in stocks, which would only be partly offset by higher imports from third countries, mainly from Ukraine and Australia.

Strategie Grains slightly lowered its projection for the EU sunflower harvest in 2024 to 10.72 million tons, down from 10.75 million previously, but still 10% above 2023.

Its soybean output forecast was slightly cut to 3.06 million tons, from 3.11 million earlier, up about 5% from last year’s 2.9 million tons.

Tags: crop forecast, EU, rapeseed