Strategie Grains cuts EU wheat crop forecast after harvest begins

Strategie Grains has lowered its monthly forecast for this year’s soft wheat harvest in the European Union, reiterating its expectation of a four-year low in production as harvest begins.

The consultancy now forecasts soft wheat production in 2024/25 in the 27-nation bloc at 121.8 million tons, 1.7 million tons less than forecast in May.

The consultancy’s latest forecast is 3.6% below last year’s volume and would be the lowest since 2020/21, when the crop was also affected by heavy rains during the growing season.

In a summary of its monthly cereals report, Strategie Grains did not explain the reasons for the downward revision to its forecast, but said it expected France to see the biggest year-on-year drop in production, followed to a lesser extent by Germany, Poland and Hungary.

France, the EU’s biggest grain producer, saw soft wheat sowing fall by more than 7% due to heavy rains.

The consultancy also lowered its forecast for this year’s EU barley crop to 52.2 million tons from 53.0 million tons last month, although that would still be 10% above last year’s drought-hit barley crop of 47.5 million tons.

Wheat and barley harvesting began this month in southern Europe, and so far yield figures have been mixed, Strategie Grains said.

In Spain, which is recovering from a severe drought last year, initial yield results in the south were good, but levels are expected to fall as the harvest moves north, the report said.

Yield results in Romania were contrasting, close to average in Slovenia and Croatia, but disappointing in northern Italy, the company added.

A smaller expected EU crop, combined with expected supply cuts in the Black Sea, should sharply reduce stocks in the bloc from a high level this season to “quite fragile” levels in 2024/25, the consultancy said.

The outlook for the soft wheat crop in Russia and, to a lesser extent, Ukraine due to adverse weather conditions has led Strategie Grains to cut its forecast for global soft wheat production for 2024/25 by almost 10 million tons to 713.3 million tons, dropping production below this season’s 719.9 million tons.

Strategie Grains lowered its forecast for this year’s EU corn crop to 62.6 million tons from 63.3 million, now steady at last year’s level.

Tags: wheat, harvesting, Germany, Italy, Hungary, Croatia, crop forecast, barley, Romania, Poland, Spain