Strategie Grains cuts EU rapeseed and sunseed crop forecasts again

Strategie Grains has again lowered its monthly forecasts for this year’s EU rapeseed and sunseed crops as unfavorable weather conditions continue to affect the bloc’s main oilseed crops, the consultancy said.

The company lowered its forecast for the EU rapeseed crop in 2024 for the third consecutive time. It estimated production at 17.27 million tons, down from a forecast of 17.80 million tons a month ago and now nearly 14% below last year’s level.

Expected production was revised downward mainly in Germany, the Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary and Romania, reflecting both low yields and reduced planted area, the EU oilseed crop report summary said.

Rapeseed harvesting in Europe is in its final stages.

Analysts forecast a decline in the EU rapeseed crop after several months of heavy rains, including in France, where the Ministry of Agriculture estimates that production could fall by almost 8%.

As for sunflower seeds harvested in late summer and fall, Strategie Grains lowered its EU forecast for the second month in a row, now predicting a 9.65 million tons harvest, down from 10.49 million tons previously.

The sharp revision to the forecast was below last year’s production of 9.80 million tons.

After a rainy spring, sunflower crops in Eastern Europe experienced a hot and dry start to the summer. Strategie Grains said it had lowered its expectations for Romania and Bulgaria, and to a lesser extent Hungary, as July weather was seen to have a negative impact on yields.

Last week, the European Commission also lowered its monthly forecasts for EU rapeseed and sunseed production, now predicting harvests of 18.38 million and 10.14 million tons, respectively.

As for the smaller EU soybean crop, Strategie Grains left its 2024 forecast unchanged at 2.99 million tons, up 4.6% from last year, when higher plantings are expected to offset lower yields.

Strategie Grains forecasts that EU rapeseed and sunseed stocks will be tight in 2024/25, despite upward revisions to projected import volumes, and this should lead to higher prices than previously anticipated.

However, uncertainty over the impact of the forthcoming EU deforestation regulation, which will cover soybean and palm oil imports in particular, could lead to volatility in oilseed markets in the short term, the agency added.

Tags: EU, France, Poland, sunseed, rapeseed, Germany, Hungary, crop forecast, Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Romania