Strategie Grains cuts EU cereal crop forecasts on weather woes

Strategie Grains has lowered its monthly forecasts for this year’s European Union wheat, barley and maize crops because of adverse weather, including dryness in Spain and northern Europe, the French consultancy said.

The reduced harvest outlook could lead to tight supply of maize and especially barley, though for wheat, high stocks and sluggish livestock feed demand were seen maintaining ample supply, it said in a cereal crop report.

The consultancy now anticipates EU soft wheat production of 128.7 million tonnes in the 2023/24 season, down from 130.0 million forecast in May though nearly 3% above 2022/23 output.

Strategie Grains lowered its outlook for the EU barley harvest by 2 million tonnes to 47.9 million tonnes, putting the forecast more than 6% below last year’s production.

In Spain, which has been affected by severe drought this year, wheat and barley harvests were seen “at historically low levels”, it said.

Regarding dry conditions in northern Europe, which have become a focus for the European grain market this month, Strategie Grains said it considered that yield potential had already been affected in the Scandinavian and Baltic countries.

However, harvest prospects were better in France and southeast Europe, it added.

The consultancy reduced its maize 2023/24 production outlook to 61.2 million tonnes from 62.1 million in May, though that would be 17% above last year’s drought-hit level.

Spring planting of maize has been disrupted by heavy rain in some countries, including flooding in Italy, and very dry conditions in Spain, Poland and northern France, it said.

Besides the deteriorating harvest outlook, barley availability in the EU would be curbed by smaller crops expected in Britain and Ukraine, which are regular suppliers to import-reliant Spain, Strategie Grains said.

EU cereal supply would also depend on overall imports from war-torn Ukraine, it said, adding that a temporary ban on sales to eastern EU states was leading to more transit westwards while a Black Sea corridor with Russia continued to work erratically.

Tags: wheat, harvest, forecast, barley, stocks, EU, dryness, France, output, Poland, maize, crops, Italy, Outlook, Britain, European Union, soft wheat, Spain, Stratégie grains, Production, adverse weather, Ukraine