Strategie Grains cuts EU cereal crop forecasts again on weather toll

Strategie Grains has cut further its monthly forecasts for this year’s European Union wheat, barley and maize harvests as harsh weather in different parts of the bloc continued to take a toll on cereal crops, the consultancy said on Thursday.

The consultancy now expects EU soft wheat production of 126.2 million metric tons in the 2023/24 season, down from the 128.7 million forecast in May and less than 1% above the 2022/23 output, it said in a cereal report.

Strategie Grains lowered its outlook for the EU barley harvest by 0.8 million tons to 47.1 million, about 8% below last year’s production, and trimmed its EU maize crop estimate by 0.4 million to 60.8 million tons, though that would be nearly 17% above last year’s drought-ravaged harvest.

The French firm had already reduced its wheat, barley and maize forecasts in June due to adverse weather.

With wheat and barley harvesting well under way, field work had confirmed “catastrophically low” barley yields in Spain while in southeast Europe, yields were disappointing, with some low levels linked to excess moisture during spring, Strategie Grains said.

Spring barley had suffered from dryness, particularly in northern Europe, while maize crops, mainly harvested in autumn, would lose yield without significant rain in July, it said.

Yield prospects were better, “although hardly spectacular”, in France and central Europe, it added.

Wheat supplies in Europe were still expected to be ample, partly reflecting a weaker export outlook and a drag on domestic demand from an economic slowdown, Strategie Grains said.

It cut its forecast of EU soft wheat exports in 2023/24 to 30.1 million tons from the 31.4 million projected in June, now below estimated 2022/23 exports which the firm revised up to 31.8 million tons from 30.5 million.

The export outlook has been dimmed by uncompetitive French prices and uncertain prospects in China – a key market for France – where feed wheat imports may decline after some local crop was downgraded to feed quality due to rain damage, Strategie Grains said.

However, with EU wheat production having the potential to be revised down further, the supply outlook could become tighter like barley, it added.

Tags: feed wheat, export, harvests, barley, forecasts, EU, maize, France, Market, Outlook, cereal, European Union, soft wheat, Production, Stratégie grains, wheat, yield, imports