StoneX scraps forecast for record Brazilian soybean crop

Agribusiness consultancy StoneX on Tuesday cut its estimate for Brazil’s soybean crop in 2023/24 due to lack of rain in key farmlands, now forecasting 152.8 million metric ton harvest, down from its previous estimate of161.9 million tons.

The cut means StoneX no longer forecasts a record crop in Brazil, the world’s largest producer and exporter of soybeans, as output this season would come in below the 157.7 million tons reaped in 2022/23.

StoneX analysts said that last month showers remained irregular in most Brazil soybean fields, including top grain producing state Mato Grosso, where output is set to fall more than 14% from the previous season.

They said weather would continue to play a key role in coming months, as some states tend to plant soybean later than others and there were also some delays in sowing.

“In any case, the real size of the crop will only be known as the harvest progresses,” said the analysts, who also slashed their forecast for Brazil’s soybean exports this season to 95 million tons from 103 million previously, due to lower supply.

StoneX also reduced its forecast for Brazil’s total 2023/24 corn production to 124.6 million tons from 126.0 million, as lower production in northern and northeastern Brazil amid weather issues would affect overall output.

Brazil’s first corn crop would reach 25.8 million tons, 2.4% less than estimated in December, while the second crop was estimated at 96.6 million tons, down 0.8%.

“Due to the significant delay seen in soybean planting, there is a greater chance that a larger part of the second crop will be sown outside the ideal window,” the analysts noted.

The second crop represents about 75% of Brazil’s national corn output in a given year and is sowed after soybeans are harvested in the same areas.

Tags: forecast, first corn crop, second crop, corn, Brazil, estimate, soybeans, Production, crop