StoneX analysts raised soybean and corn harvest forecasts in Brazil

Due to the adjustment of the soybean planting areas, StoneX experts increased the forecast of soybean harvest in Brazil in 2023/24 MY by 156 thsd tonnes to the record 163.63 mln tonnes, up 3.8% compared to last year.

Thus, in the state of Minas Gerais, the soybean planting area will exceed the forecasts by 40 thsd ha and amount to 2.24 mln ha, and in general, the total area will reach 45.14 mln ha, which is 1 mln ha higher than last season.

The forecast of safrinha corn crop in 2022/23 MY was increased by 0.8 mln tonnes to 109.1 mln tonnes due to good prospects for corn yield in Paraná, which is in the late stages of harvesting.

At the same time, the forecast of corn production in 2023/24 MY is lowered by 1.5% or 430 thsd tonnes to 28.2 mln tonnes compared to August estimates due to the reduction of planted areas in Bahia by 5% to 418 thsd ha, and in Minas Gerais by 6% to 564 thsd ha. In total, the planted areas of this grain will reach 4.07 mln hectares.

the Increase in crop forecasts for Brazil increased pressure on the quotations of soybeans and corn on the stock exchange in Chicago, despite the deterioration of crops in the United States after the heat wave last week.

According to the NASS USDA, the number of corn crops in good or excellent condition during the week decreased by 3% to 53% (54% last year), and soybeans – by 5% to 53% (57% last year).

November futures for soybeans yesterday rose 0.8% to 505,7 $/t (+5% for the month), although last year they were trading at 487 $/t. the January futures are trading at 510 $/t, which indicates the pessimism of American traders about the price of soybeans in the United States, which even with the reduction of the crop will not exceed last year’s due to strong competition with Brazil.

Tags: soybean, crop forecast, corn, Brazil