Soybeans trim losses. Tuesday, February 15, 2022

On Tuesday, the sellers controlled the CME Group’s farm markets.

At the close, the March corn futures finished 17¾¢ lower at $6.38. May futures ended 17¼¢ lower at $6.37. December futures closed 8¾¢ lower at $5.89.

March soybean futures ended 18¾¢ lower at $15.51.

May soybean futures settled 18½¢ lower at $15.55. New-crop November soybean futures are 10½¢ lower at $14.32.

March wheat futures closed 19¢ lower at $7.79.

March soymeal futures finished $9.60 per short ton lower at $438.80.

March soy oil futures ended 0.18¢ lower at 65.63¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the crude oil market is $3.34 per barrel lower at $92.12, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 381 points higher (+1.10%) at 34,943.

Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities, says the sellers have taken control of the soybean market.

“Grains are lower today correcting a heavily overbought market as tensions ease with Russia/ Ukraine. With less concern of disruption in Black Sea grain shipments, combined with weak energies-strong dollar and rain chances for central Argentina sellers have remained active today,” Roose says.

After a double-digit fall to start, the CME Group’s soybean market is climbing back.

At midsession, the March corn futures are 15¾¢ lower at $6.40. May futures are 16¼¢ lower at $6.39. December futures are 8¾¢ lower at $5.89.

March soybean futures are 9¢ lower at $15.61.

May soybean futures are 9½¢ lower at $15.64. New crop November soybean futures are 8¼¢ lower at $14.34.

March wheat futures are 16¾¢ lower at $7.82.

March soymeal futures are $3.20 per short ton lower at $445.20.

March soy oil futures are 0.15¢ lower at 65.66¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the crude oil market is $3.87 per barrel lower at $91.59, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 439 points higher (+1.27%) at 35,005.

On Tuesday, the pullback of Russian troops, in the tension saga between that country and Ukraine, has the CME Group’s farm markets lower.

In early trading, the March corn futures are 11¢ lower at $6.44. May futures are 11¢ lower at $6.44. December futures are 6¼¢ lower at $5.92.

March soybean futures are 21½¢ lower at $15.48.

May soybean futures are 22¼¢ lower at $15.52. New-crop November soybean futures are 16¢ lower at $14.26.

March wheat futures are 17½¢ lower at $7.82.

March soymeal futures are $4.40 per short ton lower at $444.00.

March soy oil futures are 1.34¢ lower at 64.47¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the crude oil market is $3.47 per barrel lower at $91.99, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 315 points higher (+0.91%) at 34,881.

On Tuesday, private exporters reported sales of 101,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to Mexico. Of the total, 53,500 metric tons is for delivery during the 2021/2022 marketing year and 47,500 metric tons is for delivery during the 2022/2023 marketing year.

Bob Linneman, Kluis Advisors, says investors are keeping one eye on the tensions between Ukraine and Russia.

“The late-day rumor that Russia would invade the Ukraine later this week rallied prices into the close,” Linneman stated in a note to customers.

Linneman added, “When soybean futures get over $16, a 10% correction would be $1.60 per bushel. A one or two-week correction that takes prices back to support at $15.00 may develop if commodity funds decide to lighten up. This correction can occur within a longer-term bull market.”

SovEcon, a leading Black Sea agricultural markets research firm, has upped the 2022 Russian wheat crop forecast by 3.55 mmt to 84.8 mmt. Russia is the No. 1 world wheat exporter.

Andrey Sizov, The Sizov Report, says that weather conditions have been remaining favorable for the new wheat crop in 2022. “Temperatures were mostly above normal. Ice crust on fields, which was a big issue a year ago, is almost absent this year. Accumulated precipitation is remaining substantially above normal for the southern regions. Ample precipitation also boosted snow reserves for Central and Volga Valley regions, where accumulated precipitation is now slightly above normal,” Sizov stated in a note to customers.

Sizov added that slightly less fertilizer application is expected to have a limited effect on overall yields.

“Some regional authorities report the availability of fertilizers at a level close to the previous year,” Sizov stated in a daily note to customers.

With harvest six months away, a lot can change during this period, Sizov says.

“2021/22 winter has been almost ideal for the new crop, especially in the South, a key Russian winter growing region that accounted for 45% of total crop in 2021.”

In 2021, Russia produced 76 mmt of wheat (inc. 0.8 mmt in Crimea). In 2020, Russia grew a record-high crop of 85.9 mmt.

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