Soybeans hit $15 per bushel. Monday, January 31, 2022

The CME Group’s soybean market finished at its daily high.

At the close, the March corn futures finished 10¢ lower at $6.26. May futures closed 8¾¢ lower at $6.24. December futures ended 4¢ higher at $5.73.

March soybean futures closed 20½¢ higher at $14.90.

May soybean futures settled 20¢ higher at $14.95, after hitting a high of $15.01 overnight. New-crop November soybean futures ended 15½¢ higher at $13.67.

March wheat futures settled 25¢ lower at $7.61.

March soymeal futures finished $7.70 per short ton higher at $418.90.

March soy oil futures settled 0.45¢ lower at 64.82¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the crude oil market is $1.20 per barrel higher at $88.02. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 256 points higher (+0.74%) at 34,981.

To start the week, the CME Group’s soybean complex is flexing its muscles.

At midsession, the March corn futures are 8 1/4¢ lower at $6.27. May futures are 6 1/4¢ lower at $6.27. December futures are 1¢ higher at $5.70.

March soybean futures are 1 1/2¢ higher at $14.86.

May soybean futures are 17 1/2¢ higher at $14.92, after hitting a high of $15.01 overnight. New crop November soybean futures are 11 1/2¢ higher at $13.62.

March wheat futures are 17 1/4¢ lower at $7.68.

March soymeal futures are 7.00 per short ton higher at $418.20.

March soy oil futures are 0.37 lower at 64.90 per pound.

In the outside markets, the crude oil market is $0.43 per barrel higher at $87.25 the U.S. Dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 124 points higher (+0.36%) at 34,832.

Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities, says the soybean market is well supported.

“The corn and soybean spreads are widening out today, as soybeans continue to surge higher after reaching contract highs. Supporting the market are the production losses that continue to mount in South America as harvest progresses. End-user buying has been aggressive worldwide with expanding world demand and inflation fears continuing,” Roose says.

On Monday, the CME Group’s farm markets lean on a rallying soybean complex.

In early trading, the March corn futures are 2¼¢ higher at $6.38. May futures are 3¼¢ higher at $6.36. December futures are 6¢ higher at $5.75.

March soybean futures are 16½¢ higher at $14.86.

May soybean futures are 16½¢ higher at $14.91¾, after hitting a high of $15.01 overnight. New-crop November soybean futures are 11½¢ higher at $13.62.

March wheat futures are 7¼¢ lower at $7.79.

March soymeal futures are $4.20 per short ton higher at $415.40.

March soy oil futures are 0.42¢ higher at 65.69¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the crude oil market is $0.73 per barrel higher at $87.55. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 216 points lower (-0.62%) at 34,508.

On Monday, private exporters reported sales of 129,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China. Of the total, 66,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2021/2022 marketing year and 63,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2022/2023 marketing year.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that it’s important to watch price trends.

“Wow, $15 soybean futures in the overnight trade. Prices started out steady to a little higher and then gained strength through the night,” Kluis stated in a note to customers. “Some global end users are moving into panic buy mode. Yield forecasts continue to fall in South America. On Friday, large sales were announced to both China and Mexico.”

Kluis added, “I am watching the price pattern. As the grain markets have been moving higher, the lows have come in on Monday or Tuesday, then the highs on Thursday and Friday. When that pattern changes, watch out. The trend can change quickly.”

SovEcon, a leading Black Sea agricultural markets research firm, has upped the 2021/22 Russian wheat exports estimate by 0.2 mmt to 34.3 mmt. Russia is the No. 1 world wheat exporter.

“The increase reflects the current high export pace. The competitive edge of Russian wheat remains relatively high amid the world prices rally in recent weeks and the weaker ruble. We believe that the Russian wheat exports quota (8 mmt for February 15–June 30) will be completely or almost completely filled,” Andrey Sizov, managing editor of the The Sizov Report, stated in a note to customers Monday.

Sizov added, “The risk of problems with shipments from the Black Sea region due to the conflict between Russia and the West/Ukraine seems low to us. The limiting factor may be a decrease in importers’ demand and their switching to other suppliers, but this scenario looks theoretical for now.”

“In recent weeks the global wheat market rallied on fears about military escalation between Russia and Ukraine. This risk seems low to us. Even in Spring-2014 after Russia began to control Crimea there was no disruption of grain exports from the Black Sea,” Sizov stated.

USDA cut Russian wheat exports estimate by 1.0 mmt to 35.0 mmt in the January WASDE report.

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