Soybean quotes are down amid optimistic USDA soybean balances for this and next season

June WASDE supply and demand report from USDA did not bring significant changes in the world soybean balances for 2023/24 and 2024/25 MY, which caused further decrease in quotations.

After the report was published, July soybean futures on the Chicago exchange fell to $432.6 $/t (-3.5% compared to the data after the report was released in May), and November futures fell by 0.4% to $421.5 $/t (-5.1%). New crop futures continue to cheapen at a faster pace.

In the world soybean balance for MY 2023/24, USDA experts made no significant changes, although analysts expected a significant reduction in the soybean production forecast for Brazil (reduced by 1 to 153 million tons compared to 162 million tons in MY 2022/23) and for Argentina (left at 50 million tons compared to 25 million tons), while analysts estimated them at 151.8 million tons and 49.8 million tons, respectively.

Compared to the May estimate, the new soybean balance for MY 2024/25 has undergone the following changes:

– Initial stocks estimate is lowered by 0.7 million tons to 111.07 million tons (100.39 million tons in MY 2023/24) due to an adjustment to the MY 2023/24 balance.
– World production forecast is left unchanged at 422.26 million tons, which would be 6.7% higher than this season (395.91 million tons) and 11.6% higher than MY 2022/23 (378.4 million tons).
– The world consumption estimate is lowered by 0.11 million tons to 401.63 million tons (383.34 million tons), which would be well below production.
– The world export forecast is left unchanged at 180.2 million tons (172.62 million tons).
– The world ending stocks estimate is lowered by 0.6 million tons to 127.9 million tons (111.07 million tons, 99.7 million tons and 100.3 million tons), although analysts had estimated it at 127.25 million tons.

The forecast for world rapeseed production in MY 2024/25 is lowered by 1.3 million tons to 87.1 million tons (88.39 million tons in MY 2023/24) due to lower yields in Australia by 1 million tons to 5.5 million tons (5.7 million tons) due to reduced planted area and in the EU by 0.25 million tons to 18.75 million tons (20 million tons).

World rapeseed trade in MY 2024/25 USDA experts reduced by 0.75 million tons to 16.9 million tons (16.7 million t), including a decrease in exports from Australia by 0.9 million tons to 4.5 million tons.

On the MATIF exchange in Paris, August rapeseed futures yesterday fell 1% to €465/t or $502.5/t (+2.9% for the month) despite lower forecasts, reacting more to the overall world oilseed balance for the new season.

USDA experts left the global sunflower balance for MY 2024/25 unchanged in their June report.

Tags: rapeseed, prices, soybean, sunseed