Soybean prices fall under pressure from increased supplies from South America and good planting conditions in the US

Amid accelerated harvest in Argentina and active sowing in the United States, the may futures for soybeans on the Chicago stock exchange yesterday fell by 1.3% to 420,9 $/t (-2% for the week, -3.5% for the month), which will increase pressure on export prices in Ukraine, which stopped growing and began to fall again.

According to the Agency Conab, in Brazil as of April 28, soybeans harvested on 90.5% of 45.2 million hectares (93.7% last year), and dry weather in the southern states allows to speed up the work, so local analysts raise crop forecasts. In April, the country exported 12.8 mln tonnes of soybeans, down 10% compared to April 2023, while soybean meal exports increased by 32.5%.

According to the Grain exchange of Buenos Aires (BAGE), due to prolonged rains in Argentina on April 25, soybeans harvested only 22.5% of the area (45.3% on average for 5 years), but dry weather in the coming weeks will accelerate the harvest.

In the United States due to warm weather with periodic precipitation soybeans as of April 28, planted 18% of the planned area (10% on average for 5 years).

Yesterday, the administration of the President of the United States released a guide to the raw material SAF, according to which the biodiesel derived from soybeans will meet the requirements only if producers use methods of zero tillage and cover crops (analogous to the European ISCC). This plunged soybean oil prices by 5.8% and increased pressure on soybean quotes.

In Ukraine, exporters reduced prices for soybeans with GMOs by 5-10 USD/t to 400-410 USD/t, and increased prices for soybeans without GMOs by 5-10 USD/t to 435-440 USD/t for delivery to the Black Sea ports in May.

Processors continue to compete with exporters, so they raised prices for soybeans with GMOs to 18300-18500 UAH/t, and for soybeans without GMOs to 19200-19500 UAH/t with delivery to the plant.

Ukrainian soybean meal cannot compete in the EU market due to the too high price, so export demand for it is low and supply is growing.

Tags: Ukraine, Brazil, EU, prices, soybean, USA, Argentina