Soybean futures are rising against the background of active exports and record processing in the US

Yesterday on the Chicago Stock Exchange, November soybean futures continued to rise and crossed the psychological level of $13/bushel or $477.7/t (+3.7% for the week, -4.2% for the year) amid a sharp increase in exports and record processing of soybeans in the US, as well as delays in planting in Brazil.

According to the NOPA association, which includes 95% of all US processors, in September, the volume of soybean processing in the country increased by 2.5% compared to August to a record for the month of 4.5 million tons, which is 4.6% higher than in September 2022

Soybean oil stocks among NOPA members decreased by 11.4% for the month and amounted to 500,000 tons as of September 30, which is 24.1% lower than in September 2022 and the lowest level since December 2014.

Domestic consumption of soybeans in the United States is increasing thanks to subsidies for the production of biodiesel from soybean and canola oil.

Exports of soybeans from the USA for the week of October 6-12 increased by 43% to 2.01 million tons (of which 1.36 million tons were shipped to China), and in general for the season reached 5.4 million tons, which is 14.5 % exceeds last year’s rates.

It will be recalled that the USDA reduced the forecast of soybean exports from the USA in MY 2023/24 to 47.8 million tons (compared to 54.2 million tons in MY 2022/23) due to an increase in soybean supplies from Brazil to China.

According to the NASS USDA weekly report, 62% of U.S. soybean acreage was harvested as of October 15, which is 10% above the 5-year average.

Rainfall deficits persist in central and northern Brazil, delaying soybean planting and potentially lower yields if planted late, which supports quotes.

In Ukraine, exporters sold significant batches of soybeans, so in September-October its export may exceed 500-600 thousand tons. Against the background of high demand, soybean prices remain at the level of UAH 15,000-15,200/t or $365-370/t with delivery to ports Danube and $330-340/t with delivery to Black Sea ports. At the same time, demand prices for delivery to the EU decreased by $10-20/t to $380/t for delivery to Hungary and Romania and $420-430/t for delivery to Italy.