Soybean area planted in Brazil will increase only slightly in the 2024/25 season

Brazil’s soybean acreage will grow at a slower pace in the 2024/25 season than in previous years as future oilseed prices are near a four-year low, Mauricio Buffon, president of farming group Aprosoja Brasil, said on Monday.

Brazil is the world’s largest producer and exporter of soybeans, with China as its biggest market.

“We believe that the areas where soybeans will be grown should have one of the lowest growth rates,” he told reporters on the sidelines of an annual conference organized by Brazilian agribusiness association Abag.

Soybean futures are nearing their lowest level since October 2020 amid expectations of more favorable weather for the U.S. crop and concerns about a possible economic slowdown.

Brazil’s soybean acreage rose 4.5% to 46 million hectares in 2023/24 from the previous season and 6% in 2022/23, according to state agriculture agency Conab.

“I don’t know if it (growth in 2024/25) will reach 1%,” Buffon said, adding that deadly floods in the country’s southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul have also been a limiting factor.

Earlier this year, floods devastated areas suitable for soybean cultivation and left many farmers in dire financial straits.

The estimate is in line with forecasts released by private analysts, with Consultancies StoneX and Datagro forecasting growth of 0.79% and 1.5% respectively. This would be the 18th consecutive increase, Datagro said.

McKinsey & Company estimates that by 2030, 70 million to 80 million hectares will be needed to produce food globally.

“We are a country with a lot of potential in this regard,” Nelson Ferreira, senior partner and global leader of the consulting firm’s agriculture division, said at the same event.

Ferreira said that in order to produce food more sustainably without deforestation, there is a need to “accelerate” the restoration of degraded areas

Tags: Brazil, soybean, crop forecast