SovEcon reduced wheat harvest forecast in rf to 80.7 mln tons, does not exclude new reduction

The analytical center “SovEcon” revised the forecast of gross wheat harvest in Russia, reducing it to 80.7 million tons from the previous estimate of 82.1 million tons, does not exclude a new revision in a smaller direction, follows from the company’s message.

Experts point out that the revision of the forecast is primarily due to the deteriorating condition of crops and lower yield potential: first after hot and dry weather, then after the May frosts.

“Since April, the forecast for the new wheat crop in Russia has deteriorated significantly. We have lowered our forecast from 94 million tons to 80.7 million tons. We are not sure that the current estimates fully reflect all weather anomalies”, – the materials quote the words of the head of the company Andrei Sizov. He did not rule out a new reduction in the forecast: the reason – hot and dry conditions in regions with winter wheat and heavy rains in Siberia.

Experts are also concerned about the slow progress of sowing in Siberia, the largest producer of spring wheat. According to experts, by the end of May only 3.7 million hectares had been sown there compared to the average of 5.2 million hectares, as a result of which the pre-harvest area estimate was reduced to 5.45 million hectares from 5.54 million hectares. The company does not rule out a further reduction in this level as above normal rainfall is expected in the region over the next two weeks, but with the planting season coming to an end.

The Ministry of Agriculture, despite the weather disasters, currently maintains expectations for the grain harvest at 132 million tons, while the gross harvest of wheat is expected to be 85 million tons. Most of the crops affected by the May return frosts have already been reseeded, orchards were the most affected, and a decrease in grain yields is also expected, rf Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut reported the previous day.

Tags: Russia, wheat, crop forecast