South Africa’s corn crop expected to rebound

Higher prices for corn following a drought-ravaged 2023-24 crop should lead to a larger planted area for 2024-25 and, under normal weather conditions, greater production that will maintain South Africa’s place as a net corn exporter, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

The FAS estimates South Africa will produce up to 16.5 million tonnes of corn in 2024-25. An El Niño-induced midsummer drought caused the smallest corn crop in five years in 2023-24 and prompted higher local corn prices. Producers are anticipating continued elevated prices as they prepare for planting season later this year.

The FAS projects the area harvested to reach 3.1 million hectares in 2024-25, up from 2.9 million the previous marketing year, and an improved yield of 5.3 tonnes/hectare, compared to 4.68 t/ha. An estimated 2.5 million tonnes of the 2024-25 crop is seen heading for export.

“The white corn area is projected to surge due to the major drop in white corn production across the region in 2023-24,” the FAS said. “White corn is the preferred grain for production in Southern Africa. Milled into the form of a meal, white corn is the staple food for most households as a relatively inexpensive source of carbohydrates. The bulk of yellow corn is destined for the animal feed sector as the primary ingredient of most feed rations, particularly in the broiler industry.”

Despite diminished corn production of 13.98 million tonnes in 2023-24, down from 17.09 million in 2022-23, South Africa is still expected to export about 1.5 million tonnes. In 2022-23, South Africa exported 3.4 million tonnes of corn to more than 15 countries, with Zimbabwe, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and Botswana as the top five destinations.

“Unlike other countries in the region, South Africa uses innovative production technologies, such as genetically engineered seed and efficient and effective farming practices, including precision and conservation farming, which helped to lessen the full impact of the drought,” the FAS said.

Year-end stocks are estimated to expand by 20% to 1.8 million tonnes in 2024-25 on higher local production. However, in 2023-24 stock levels are expected to drop by 36% to 1.5 million tonnes, due to lower local production and higher corn demand in the region.

Tags: corn