Сorn prices in Ukraine continue to rise

During the week, the purchase price of corn in the ports of Ukraine increased amid strong demand from importers, lack of supply from producers, low carry-over stocks and the July heat wave, which negatively affected the formation of the late crop.

Since Monday, the demand price for corn increased by 13-17 $/t to 170-181 $/t CPT port.

According to the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center, agrometeorological conditions in Ukraine were unfavorable for the formation of late crops, as 30-50% of the area with crops was covered by drought. At the current stage of development, corn is the most vulnerable to high temperatures, as it requires maximum moisture during flowering. In many areas, due to a decrease in productive moisture reserves to a critical level and heat stress, there is a steady wilting and complete cessation of growth, yellowing and drying of leaves, stems, and in some places plants. The heat sterilizes pollen, worsens plant pollination, and leads to the formation of an extra grain on the cob, which will eventually reduce corn yields.

The precipitation of the last week reduced the temperature to normal and slightly improved the condition of the crops, but in the southeast the plants were very badly damaged. Lower corn harvest forecasts in Ukraine and Russia support prices for the new crop, but their growth is limited by low prices for feed wheat and corn in Chicago.

According to the forecast of local agencies, Ukraine will harvest 24 million tons of corn this year, which is 21% less than last year’s harvest.

The Russian agency ICAR has lowered its forecast for the Russian corn harvest by 3 million tons to 14 million tons (17 million tons last year) due to the heat in the Southern and Central districts. SovEcon experts lowered the forecast of corn production in Russia from 14.6 to 13.4 million tons.

Against this background, the forward prices for corn deliveries to the Black Sea ports in September-November increased by 10-15 USD/t to 170-180 USD/t, which corresponds to the level of feed wheat prices.

According to the State Customs Service, in 2024/25 MY (as of July 24), Ukraine exported 1.39 mln tonnes of corn (915 thsd tonnes in the same period last year).

December corn futures in Chicago for the week rose by only 1.5% to 164,5 $/t, not responding to forecasts of reduced harvest in the EU, Ukraine and Russia, as the weather in the United States contributes to the formation of a good harvest.

Agency MARS has lowered its forecast for corn yield in the EU from 7.55 to 7.24 t/ha, which will be 2% below the 5-year average of 7.35 t/ha.

August corn futures in Paris during the week rose 3.9% to 220,5 €/t or 239 $/t, which will support prices for black sea corn.

According to Conab, in Brazil as of July 21, the second crop corn harvested on 79.6% of the area (47.9% last year), but the rains delayed the harvest.

In the coming months, the world market will be dominated by corn from Argentina and Brazil, but in September, the demand for black sea corn will increase, which will lead to higher prices.

Tags: Ukraine, corn, prices