Sharp rise in Russian 2021-22 wheat output forecast

Russian wheat output projections for this year have been revised up considerably, with production now expected to be the third highest to date amid a recovery in crop yields and higher spring wheat acreage.

Russia’s July 2021-June 2022 winter and spring wheat production — excluding from the disputed region of Crimea, annexed from Ukraine in 2014 — is projected at 82.3mn t, against 78.1mn t and 78.3mn t expected in April and November last year, respectively, under estimates from Argus’ agricultural advisory arm, Agritel.

And in Crimea, wheat output is now forecast at around 800,000t for new crop, up from a previous projection of 500,000t and an estimated 540,200t in 2020-21.

Russian output this year will be around 2.5mn t below 2020-21 but 5pc above the five-year average.

And overall wheat acreage is estimated at 28.25mn hectares (ha) this year, with 15.2mn ha of winter crop and a record 13.05mn ha of spring wheat. The latter would be up by around 1mn ha on the year.

Winter wheat crop yields are projected at 3.87 t/ha, up by 5pc from the five-year average and from 3.77 t/ha last year. And spring wheat yields are estimated at 1.8 t/ha, compared with a 10-year average of 1.73 t/ha and 1.88 t/ha last year.

There were diverging trends in Russian wheat-producing areas in November-April, as favourable weather in the Southern Federal District contrasted with persisting drought in central Russia and the Volga region. This prompted many farmers in central Russia and the Volga to opt for spring wheat this year.

Central Russia and the Volga both saw late rainfall and mild weather in the spring, which are beneficial to spring wheat. The only areas of concern are the Urals and south Siberia, where hot and dry weather prevented a homogeneous emergence of spring wheat.

Farmers have also identified potential issues regarding crop quality amid late rainfall, with wheat protein levels set to be lower than in 2020-21.

Agrus Media

Tags: wheat output, Russia, wheat