Sep WASDE cuts Australian, Canadian cereal estimates

The United States Department of Agriculture has forecast Australia’s 2023-24 wheat production at 26 million tonnes (Mt) in its September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

This compares with 29Mt forecast in the August WASDE, and represents the largest proportion of the 6Mt drop in world production, now seen at 787.3Mt.

“If realised, this would be the first year-to-year decline in global wheat production since 2018-19,” USDA said in its report commentary, which cites dry weather in the past month lowering yield prospects for Western Australian, New South Wales, and Queensland crops.

“Canada is decreased 2Mt to 31Mt on the initial model-based forecast by Statistics Canada for the 2023-24 crop, indicating lower yields from last year arising from dry conditions across the Prairies.”

USDA has chopped 2Mt from its estimate for Canada’s 2023-24 production, now forecast at 31Mt, and the estimate for the European Union is down 1Mt to 134Mt.

Export forecasts for Australia and Canada have likewise been cut, with Australia’s 2023-24 shipments now seen at 19Mt, down 2.5Mt from the August figure, and Canada’s at 23Mt, down 1.5Mt.

EU wheat exports at 37.5Mt are down 1Mt from the August estimate.

Countries where forecasts for exports have risen are Russia, up 1Mt to 49Mt, Ukraine, up 500,000t to 11Mt, and Kazakhstan, up 1Mt to 10.5Mt.

Barley production low

On barley, the estimate for Russian exports has lifted 300,000t to 4.9Mt, while the forecast for Canada has dropped 300,000t to 2.3Mt.

USDA now sees global barley production in 2023-24 at 141.9Mt, down 6.5 percent from the 2022-23 crop, and the smallest crop since 2018-19.

“Major global barley producers and exporters, including the European Union, Russia, and Canada, are all forecast to have lower production in 2023-24.

“While Australia barley production is also forecast lower, exports are still forecast at 5.5Mt owing to large stocks following three years of bumper harvests.

“By removing duties, China gains access to much needed supplies of barley from Australia in a year of thinner global exportable supplies.

“Recent rises in bids for Australia barley supplies support the idea of China’s switch in supplier origins.”

Tags: wheat, forecast, yield, Australia, export, barley, EU, WASDE, estimate, Canada, Production