SAFRAS reduces Brazil’s soybean production estimate to 152.43 mln tons

Brazilian soybean production in 2022/23 must total 152.43 mln tons, up 18.6% from the previous crop, which hit 128.5 mln tons. The new estimate was released by SAFRAS & Mercado, on March 3rd. If confirmed, it will be the biggest crop in history.

In January, when the previous report was released, the projection was 153.37 mln tons. The decline from the previous estimate is 0.61%.

SAFRAS indicates an increase of 3.6% in the area, estimated at 43.86 mln hectares. In 2021/22, planting occupied 42.34 mln hectares. The survey points out that the average yield must increase from 3,050 to 3,493 kg/ha.

An important negative adjustment was made in the expected average yield of Rio Grande do Sul. Low moisture and high temperatures hitting part of the state’s crops in February continued to cause problems for plant development in some regions, which weakened the crops’ productive potential.

Despite this, there are regions with crops that register good development, which helps to compensate for the more aggressive losses. Irregularity marks the season in RS, and only the harvest will give us a better vision of the state’s final production. Anyway, it should be pointed out that at the state level the losses will not be as sharp as those seen last season.

In contrast to the cut in RS, other states received some small positive adjustments in expected yields, such as Mato Grosso, Goiás, and Minas Gerais. The advance of the harvest has revealed that crop development is extremely positive this season, bringing great potential for the production of these states. The improved estimates compensate for part of the expected losses in RS, ensuring the production of over 150 mln tons in Brazil.

Tags: Brazil, estimate, soybean, Production, crop, yield, SAFRAS & Mercado