Safras reduces Brazil’s soybean production estimate to 149.705 mln tons

Brazilian soybean production in 2023/24 is expected to total 149.705 mln tons, a decrease of 5.1% from the previous season, which stood at 157.832 mln tons. The estimate was released by Safras & Mercado on June 7. On April 12, the date of the previous estimate, the projection was 151.246 mln tons. Even with the new cut, Brazilian production should be the second-largest in history.

Safras indicates a 3% increase in the area, estimated at 46.025 mln hectares. In 2022/23, the planting occupied 44.681 mln hectares. The survey shows that the average yield is projected to increase from 3,550 kilograms per hectare in 2022/23 to 3,269 in 2023/24.

The highlight of the June update is the important reduction in average yield and expected production for Rio Grande do Sul due to the weather event that hit most of the state between the end of April and mid-May. The large accumulations of rain brought significant production reductions to crops that had not yet been reaped, in addition to also causing losses in silos and warehouses that contained soybeans.

This fact led to a reduction of approximately 2.8 mln tons in production in Rio Grande do Sul to 20 mln tons, from a harvest previously estimated at a record level of 22.799 mln tons.

The reduction in production in Rio Grande do Sul naturally impacts national production in a major way, as Rio Grande do Sul, even with the losses, will have the second-largest crop among the country’s states this season.

Despite this, in parallel with the production cuts in Rio Grande do Sul, positive adjustments were also made in some important growing states, offsetting part of the negative impact on the national number. Such adjustments covered states in all regions of the country, with highlight on the increase in production expected for Mato Grosso, the largest growing state in the country.

Once again, we point out that the climate improvement registered in the first quarter of the year was decisive for crops sown later in the Center-North of the country, resulting in average yields much higher than those registered in earlier crops. This fact resulted in recovery of the average yield expected for some states, compensating part of the losses in Rio Grande do Sul at the national level.

Tags: Production, yield, projection, Brazil, estimate, soybeans