SAFRAS cuts Brazil’s soybean production estimate to 161.377 mln tons

Brazilian soybean production in 2023/24 must total 161.377 mln tons, up 2.2% from the previous season’s 157.83 mln tons. The estimate was released by SAFRAS & Mercado last Friday (24). If confirmed, it will be the largest crop in history.

In July, when the planting intention report was released, the projection was 163.25 mln tons. The reduction from the previous estimate is 1.87 mln tons, or 1.15%.

SAFRAS indicates an increase of 2.1% in the area, estimated at 45.62 mln hectares. In 2022/23, planting occupied 44.68 mln hectares. The survey shows that average yield must increase from 3,550 to 3,555 kilograms per hectare.

Fine adjustments were made to the expected average yield potentials for some states in the Midwest, North, and Northeast regions of the country due to the irregular climate (low moisture and high temperatures) registered since October. The negative highlights are the states of Mato Grosso and Goiás.

Despite this, it is important to highlight that yields can still be high in these states, although they should be lower than those registered in the 2022/23 season (which were quite high). If the climate does not improve, new cuts may occur, but if there is improvement, most of the plants may recover, resulting in yields that are still relevant.

In the South, attention is paid to excess moisture, which has been delaying the planting work. Despite this, we still cannot talk about losses of productive potential in crops.

Tags: Production, crop, yield, planting, Brazil, estimate, soybeans