SAFRAS cuts Brazil’s soybean production estimate to 158.23 mln tons

Brazilian soybean production in 2023/24 is expected to total 158.23 mln tons, an increase of 0.3% over the previous season’s crop, which was 157.83 mln tons. The estimate was released by SAFRAS & Mercado on December 8. If confirmed, it will still be the largest crop in history.

On November 24, the date of the previous estimate, the projection was 161.38 mln tons. The reduction from the previous forecast is 1.95%.

SAFRAS indicates an increase of 1.9% in the area, estimated at 45.55 mln hectares. In 2022/23, planting occupied 44.68 mln hectares. The survey shows that average productivity should increase from 3,550 to 3,491 kilograms per hectare.

A negative adjustment was made to the expected average productivity for the state of Mato Grosso, where we have the biggest problems arising from climate irregularity this season. Our research confirmed that there are important problems in some micro-regions, although there is also good development in other micro-regions of the state. There is uncertainty about the true productive potential of crops at state level, and only the beginning of the harvest will reveal the reality. In any case, so far we understand that average productivity should be lower than that registered in recent seasons, but the weather in the rest of December can prevent losses from increasing, also leading to a possible recovery of some regions.

The Brazilian crop still depends on the climate, mainly in the South, North, and Northeast regions. If the weather does not improve, losses might grow, but if the weather improves, some states could surprise, offsetting part of the losses expected for Mato Grosso. Such uncertainty could still allow for a record crop to be registered in the country.

Tags: soybeans, Production, crop, forecast, productivity, Brazil, estimate