SAFRAS cuts Brazil’s soybean crop estimate again, now to 151.356 mln tons

Brazilian soybean production in 2023/24 is forecast to hit 151.356 mln tons, down 4.1% from 157.83 mln tons in the previous season. The estimate was released by SAFRAS & Mercado on January 5.

On December 8, the date of the previous estimate, the projection was 158.23 mln tons. The reduction from the previous forecast is 4.34%.

SAFRAS indicates an increase of 1.5% in the area, estimated at 45.36 mln hectares. In 2022/23, planting occupied 44.68 mln hectares. The survey shows that average yield should decrease from 3,550 to 3,354 kg per hectare.

The irregular climate brought the need for further reductions in the yield potential of important growing states, especially Mato Grosso. Negative adjustments were made to the area and average yield expected in the largest growing state of the country. The slightly moist climate, with irregular rainfall and high temperatures, has brought considerable problems to crops in central/northern Brazil. Areas were abandoned and replanting was necessary, with changes in sowing calendars in several states.

In addition to Mato Grosso, there was a reduction in expected average yields in states such as Goiás, Tocantins, and Bahia. However, it is important to highlight that, especially in these states, the climate is still a decisive factor for crop development, given the late planting. If in January, February, and March the climate is more regular, a large part of crops may still recover, which can guarantee still satisfactory yields, albeit lower than that of the last crop.

In the other states of the Midwest and the states of the South and Southeast regions, crop development is generally favorable, and beneficial weather is still important in the coming few weeks/months to have some compensation for the losses in the central and northern states at the national level. In any case, the estimated reduction in average yield in these important growing states led to a strong reduction in Brazilian production, which is now estimated at 151.356 mln tons, there being no more room for a new record crop this season.

For the next few days, climate maps point to a period of good moisture in the states of Rio Grande do Sul, Minas Gerais, Goiás, Mato Grosso, and states in the North and Northeast regions between January 7 and 13.

In the period between January 14 and 20, moisture decreases in most of the country, but higher accumulations are still expected for the states of the South Region and part of the North Region.

Tags: soybeans, Production, forecast, yield, projection, Brazil, estimate