Rye production in Ukraine is declining

According to the official statistics, in 2023 Ukraine harvested 231.2 thsd tonnes of corn (-26% compared to 2022) from 79.3 thsd ha (-12%) with the average yield of 2.94 t/ha (-5%). This is reported on the Facebook page of KWS UKRAINE with reference to UkrAgroConsult analytics.

The reduction in acreage was caused by purely economic reasons: lack of export demand and competition with more profitable crops. The general trend of shifting the planted areas to the west of the country also applies to rye. For the 2024 harvest, the largest areas were concentrated in Rivne and Volyn regions. In contrast to the previous year, Chernihiv region was among the top three, where more rye was sown than in Zhytomyr region.

In terms of yields, the prospects for the upcoming harvest are positive, but slightly worse than last year. Although the winter was mild, the condition of the crops is not uniform due to the lack of moisture in the spring in all regions except for the west of the country.

Unfortunately, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy does not provide any operational data on rye harvesting. However, if we look at other winter grains, the yields of wheat and barley are worse than last year, although they are in line with the long-term average.

UkrAgroConsult leaves its estimate of the rye harvest in Ukraine in 2024 unchanged at 205 thsd tonnes. Taking into account the carry-over stocks and reduced domestic consumption, this volume should be enough to cover domestic needs, but exports are unlikely to be significant. In July-June of 2023/24 MY, Ukraine exported only 1.5 thsd tonnes of rye, which is significantly less than last year. Next season, the exports from Ukraine will remain scarce, although the demand may increase.

The European Commission expects a slight decrease in the EU’s own rye harvest to 7.34 mln tons (-1%) due to lower yields in Poland and Romania. Given the decrease in carry-over stocks, this volume is likely to be insufficient to cover domestic consumption. The European market is already showing signs of price growth, which is likely to continue in the near future.

Tags: crop forecast, Ukraine