Russia. Wheat exports by the end of the season may reach 33 million tons, January potential at the level of 2.2 million tons

At the end of the 2021/22 season, Russia can export 33 million tons of wheat. This forecast was announced to Agroinvestor by Dmitry Rylko, Director General of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR). In December, wheat exports should reach 3.5 million tons, the expert said, in January, according to his estimate, the export will amount to slightly more than 2 million tons. During the holidays, shipments will go in small volumes. Due to bad weather, some of the ships will move from December to January, which, all other things being equal and good weather, will increase exports in the first month of 2022, Rylko said.

The head of the analytical center “Rusagrotrans” Igor Pavensky told Agroinvestor that, according to his estimate, in January the export of wheat will be at the level of 2.3-2.4 million tons, taking into account the EAEU countries, compared to 3.45 million tons in 2020 and 1.9 million tons in 2019.

The IKAR survey says that in the first months of 2022, export demand may revive after the long New Year holidays and in anticipation of the start of the export quota (from February 15), which could support the market. Experts also note that at the moment there are still risks for winter crops, which will restrain export and may lead to a local deficit in some regions.

According to Roshydromet, 97% (17.8 million hectares) of winter crops were in good, excellent and satisfactory condition before wintering against 14.9 million hectares a year earlier. IKAR notes that this is a historic record. Therefore, in the spring, one should expect less than usual re-sowing of winter crops, which, together with the planned expansion of areas under oilseeds, can lead to a reduction in spring wheat, the review says.

Meanwhile, Rosstat has published an updated estimate of the grain harvest in Russia, it is 120.6 million tons in weight after revision, which is 9.6% lower than last year. The previous estimate of the statistics department was 120.7 million tons, including 75.9 million tons of wheat. According to the current moderately optimistic forecast of IKAR, grain harvest in Russia in 2022 will amount to 127-128 million tons, including 82-83 million tons of wheat.

In the first half of this agricultural year, Russia exported just over 21.5 million tons of wheat, taking into account supplies to the EAEU countries, IKAR estimated. This is 65% of the annual export potential. The export dynamics in July-December almost completely coincided with the same period of the 2019/20 agricultural year, but significantly yielded to the last season. According to preliminary data, just over 26 million tons of grain were exported in the first half of the season against 32 million tons a year earlier. At the same time, IKAR notes a significant reduction in the volume of grain transshipment at the roadstead in comparison with the previous season.

Аgroinvestor

Tags: Russia, export, wheat