Russia wants you to think the Black Sea grain deal is dead in the water

Some 28 million metric tons of Ukrainian grain have been exported under the Black Sea Grain Initiative since last July, including to poor countries facing the brunt of the world’s spiraling food crisis.

But Russia is threatening to walk away from the pact, brokered by the United Nations and Turkey, unless its demands are met. The Kremlin is effectively threatening a return to the full-scale maritime blockade that halted Ukraine’s grain exports in the months after its full-scale invasion in February last year.

Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will meet with U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres in New York next week to discuss an extension of the deal beyond May 18.

The outlook is “not looking good,” the Kremlin has said, sparking speculation that the deal, which allows limited Ukrainian grain volumes to reach foreign buyers, will soon be dead in the water.

Ratcheting up the pressure, a letter from Russia to the Joint Coordination Committee of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, seen by POLITICO, warned that ship registrations would only continue until May 18.

It also appeared as a veiled threat that Russia’s military could start attacking commercial ships in the Black Sea after that date, no longer bound by the safe passage rules of the agreement. “It will make [it ]possible to avoid commercial losses and prevent possible safety risks,” read the letter, dated Wednesday.

Is Russia bluffing?

Moscow is seizing the moment now that both “Turkey and Ukraine are in a more vulnerable position than before,” said Yevgeniya Gaber, an Atlantic Council fellow and former Ukrainian diplomat.

The rhetorical escalation comes as Kyiv’s overland export corridors are threatened by import bans imposed by Eastern European countries led by Poland. At the same time, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan faces a tough battle for reelection next month.