Russia. Production and export potential of grain market

Russia expected another bumper grain crop in MY 2019/20. The causes for optimism included an expansion of planted area and almost ideal winter survival of crops. However, the record crop projections did not come true.

The summer featured constantly falling forecasts for Russia’s wheat crop. Although its planted acreage increased to a 10-year high (+0.8 Ml ha, or +3% from 2018), this year’s yield has been affected by adverse weather and may end up at the 2018 level at best. Overall, the 2019/20 wheat output forecasts fell by almost 10 MMT from July 1 to August 15.

As a result, although the wheat crop in Russia is expected to be nevertheless higher than last year, exportable supplies will drop by at least 8-10%, reports UkrAgroConsult.

UkrAgroConsult forecasts the total crop of grains and pulses up 6% from last year, but down 10% from the 2017 record. At the same time, experts estimate lower Russia’s export potential than in MY 2018/19 as carryover supplies are at a five-year low.

Full version of the article is available to subscribers for Online Analytics “Black Sea Grain” in the new innovative platform AgriSupp.com by UkrAgroConsult. Agrisupp is a reliable analytical tool for agri market participants that contains historical and current market data, daily updates on grain, oilseed and pulses markets. We offer 2-week trial! Completely free!

Please be reminded that on September 5, UkrAgroConsult will host a major meeting point of the oilseed industry operators – the 7th International Conference “Black Sea Oil Trade-2019” in Hilton, Kyiv, Ukraine.

‘Black Sea Oil Trade’ conference annually brings together key players of the global agribusiness at the start of a new oilseed season. The goal of the conference is to discuss prospects and directions of the Black Sea and global oilseed market development, exchange international contacts, share recommendations for adapting business strategies in the changing market and global trade.

More than 250 delegates from 25+ countries attend the conference annually. Conference participants are represented by producers and crushers of oilseeds, traders, enterprises for deep processing of vegoils, investment companies, banks, legal, shipping, brokerage, insurance, surveyor and other companies.

UkrAgroConsult