Russia. In the first half of the season, export prices for wheat rose sharply

According to Elena Tyurina, head of the analytical department of the Russian Grain Union, since the beginning of the season, the export value of wheat with 12.5% ​​FOB Novorossiysk protein has grown by 36%. If on July 1 it was at the level of $ 244.5 per ton, then on December 31 – $ 332.5 per ton. “The growth rate of prices for Russian wheat FOB was higher than on the world markets. Argentine wheat in the first half of the year rose in price by 12%, French – by 26%, US SRW – by 23.5%. The rate of price increase among agricultural producers was lower than the FOB prices and on average added 24%, “she told Agroinvestor.

According to Tyurina, the rise in prices is primarily related to export duty. Since the beginning of the season, it has increased almost 2.4 times. She noted that until December 2021, Russia maintained a high level of price competitiveness. On average, Russian wheat was 3% cheaper than French wheat. In December, the situation changed: the cost of French wheat fell by 4.5%, Russian wheat on FOB – by 1.6%. As a result, at the end of December, Russian wheat cost 3.6% more than French wheat, Tyurina said.

Meanwhile, the government will introduce a tariff quota for grain exports from February 15th. According to a decree signed by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, the measure will be in effect until June 30, 2022. The quota for wheat will be 8 million tons, for rye, barley and corn – 3 million tons. This measure for grain as a whole was in effect in 2021. Now a separate quota has been introduced for the export of wheat. The government expects that, together with the floating export duty, it will help ensure food security and minimize the rise in prices for grain and other goods, including bread, milk and meat.

According to Tyurina, 25.9 million tons of grain were exported in the first half of the season, of which 22.9 million tons was wheat. “Based on the export potential of 46 million tons, which we forecast, the grain balance as of January 1 was 20.1 million tons. The export potential for wheat for the season is estimated at 35 million tons. In the second half of the year, taking into account the exported volumes, the balance was 12, 1 million tons. The quota is 8 million tons. Potentially, from January 1 to February 15, we have to ship 4.1 million tons, “Tyurina estimates.

The main importing countries of Russian wheat have already purchased large volumes, in anticipation of changes related to the quota and the increase in duties, she said. For barley, the export potential for the second half of the season is 2.37 million tons, for corn – almost 3 million tons. “These crops do not raise questions, but for wheat, perhaps we will approach with slightly fewer volumes than the established quota”, – the expert suggests.

The export duty on wheat from January 12 to January 18, 2022, will increase from $ 94.9 to $ 98.2 per ton, the Ministry of Agriculture said. The duty on barley will rise from $ 83.5 to $ 86.2 per ton, on corn – to decrease from $ 69 to $ 67.7 per ton. The fees are calculated based on indicative prices. For wheat, the price was $ 340.4 per ton ($ 335.6 a week earlier), for barley – $ 308.2 ($ 304.4), for corn – $ 281.8 ($ 283.6) per ton.

Chairman of the Board of the Union of Grain Exporters Eduard Zernin told Agroinvestor that from January 1 to 10, Russia exported about 681 thousand tons of grain. According to him, this is “a fairly calm beginning of the year.” CPT indices of wheat purchases in Russian deep-water ports now amount to 16.5 thousand rubles. per ton, in low water – 15.4 thousand rubles. per ton, he added.

In the first nine days of January, according to Tyurina, Russia exported 664 thousand tons of wheat, 52.5 thousand tons of barley and 13.3 thousand tons of corn. Daily shipments during this period amounted to 73.7 thousand tons against 97.7 thousand tons per day in December. “This drop is not so significant, considering that this is a festive period. The demand remains at a fairly high level, ”she said.

Аgroinvestor

Tags: Russia, grain, prices, wheat