Romanian wheat crop to hit 10.6mn t in 2024: Agritel

Argus’ agriculture analytics arm Agritel expects Romania to produce a 10mn t wheat crop for the sixth time in eight years, with larger planted areas to offset a less favourable outlook for the coming season’s yields.

Agritel expects Romania to harvest between 10.09mn t and 11.15mn t of wheat for the 2024-25 marketing year, in the first edition of this year’s crop tour report.

Romanian farmers plan to plant more winter crops including wheat and barley this growing season to avoid a repeat of previous years, when drought during the spring and summer penalised spring-planted crops. Planted areas for wheat are forecast at 2.30mn hectares (ha), a marked increase on the previous five-year average of 2.18mn ha.

Yields meanwhile are forecast at 4.62 t/ha, broadly in line with the previous year. More rainfall during the winter and into next year is needed to maintain this figure.

Dry weather during the planting period stalled crop development, but there is still time for the crop to recover, as was the case in 2018-19 when similar conditions early on in the season eventually yielded over 10mn t of crop.

As for conditions, crops have fared best in the west of the country, where higher rainfall has helped wheat develop to reach the 2-3 leaf and tillering stage. Rapeseed and barley crops in the west are also in good condition.

In south and southeastern Romania, farmers reported poor conditions with under half of the crop at emerging stage as of the last week of November. Farmers have also been slower to cover their fertilizer needs for the coming season.

Overall, drier weather so far this year is likely to hit rapeseed production more than wheat. Some farmers expect to resow rapeseed in the spring as a large proportion of their winter-sown crop has failed to emerge.

Romania is among several EU producers to suffer unfavourable weather conditions from early on in the current season. Bulgaria has experienced severe drought, while excessive rainfall has caused issues for some farmers in France, northern Germany, Denmark and western Poland.

This is in contrast to a relatively positive start to the year in Russia, where Agritel expects a near-record crop.

Romanian wheat production and yields

Tags: forecast, winter crops, planted areas, barley, Romania, planting, rainfall, Outlook, wheat, drought, yields, crop