Reduced forecast of wheat acreage in the U.S. did not keep quotes from falling

The USDA’s quarterly reports on planted areas and old crop stocks in the US again diverged from analysts’ estimates. US farmers, despite significant stocks and low corn prices, nevertheless increased the area under it, reducing the area under wheat, which surprised traders.

Experts NASS USDA lowered compared to the forecasts of March and June, the estimate of wheat planting area in the United States by 0.258 million acres to 47.24 million acres (49.6 million acres in 2023 and 45.8 million acres in 2022), although analysts had expected them to increase to 47.67 million acres. Winter wheat will be planted on 33.8 million acres, spring wheat – 11.27 million acres, and durum – 2.165 million acres.

Wheat stocks in the U.S. as of June 1 amounted to 19.1 million tons (with analysts’ estimates of 18.6 million tons), which is 23% higher than last year’s 15.5 million tons.

July wheat futures yesterday fell:

• 1% to 203,6 $/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-1% for the week),
• 0.6% to 217.5 $/t – for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (+1.3%).

At the same time, futures for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis increased by 0.3% to 225.3 $/t (0%).

September wheat futures on the Paris Euronext on Friday fell 1.1% to 224,75 €/t or 241,7 $/t (0%).

the European Commission has raised its forecast of wheat harvest in the EU in 2024/25 MG to 121.9 million tons (125.6 million tons in 2023/24 MY) and exports in 2023/24 MY to 33 million tons.

According to FranceAgriMer, in France the number of wheat crops in good or excellent condition decreased by 2% to 60%.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports that as of June 26, 81% of the 6.3 mln ha planted with wheat in Argentina, compared to the planned 6.3 mln ha in 2024/25 MY.

SovEcon experts lowered the forecast of wheat exports from Russia in 2024/25 MY by 1.7 to 46.1 mln tonnes, as the harvest will decrease to 80.7 mln tonnes. Severe heat in the regions of spring wheat growing in Siberia and the Volga region can significantly reduce the harvest potential.

Tags: prices, wheat, USA