Record U.S. ag exports expected

The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts another record year of U.S. agricultural exports in 2022.

The country shipped out US$177 billion worth of agricultural commodities in 2021, an 18 percent increase over the previous year.

The forecast for 2022 is for a new record of $183.5 billion.

“This, ladies and gentlemen, is unprecedented, this is unheard of,” Daniel Whitley, administrator of the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), said during the 98th annual Agricultural Outlook Forum.

He attributed the strong demand to the growing middle class in Southeast Asia and Latin America and to emerging opportunities in the Middle East.

“I think this forecast can easily be realized,” he said.

Soybeans led the way in 2021 with $27.4 billion in sales, a seven percent increase over 2020 levels.

Red meat and products were up 22 percent to $19.7 billion.

But the real star was corn with $18.7 billion in exports, slightly more than double the previous year.

China was the top customer, buying $33.4 billion of U.S. agricultural goods, followed by Canada at $24.1 billion and Mexico at $23.9 billion.

The top-10 markets all saw gains with five of the 10 setting new records, although Whitley noted that growth in the European Union has been rather lackluster for “far too long.”

Whitley said Southeast Asia is the market with the biggest growth potential.

Countries like Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines have a rapidly growing middle class and an increasing appetite for western foods, dining out and shopping in high-end grocery stores.

Whitley said the Middle East jumped up his list after attending a February trade mission to Dubai where he met with hundreds of importers, distributors, grocery store executives and hotel and restaurant officials.

He now considers it to be the second most exciting region.

“I can’t tell you how many times we heard from importers that they are interested in developing a stronger relationship with American agriculture because they view us as the most reliable supplier in the world,” he said.

Importers saw the U.S. achieve record exports in 2021 despite severe supply chain disruptions caused by the COVID pandemic. That wasn’t the case with many other exporters.

“They are very, very skittish about some of their current suppliers,” said Whitley.

“The geopolitical events happening around the world are making many people nervous about the future of trade.”

Whitley was asked what keeps him awake at night when thinking about threats to U.S. agricultural trade.

“To me it’s China,” he said.

“The concern is that one day China could just wake up and for whatever reason say, ‘hey, we’ve kind of had enough of this and we want to go in a different direction.'”

That is why market diversification continues to be a key objective of the FAS, although he acknowledged it would be extremely difficult to replace China.

Jim Sutter, chief executive officer of the U.S. Soybean Export Council, said India and Sub-Saharan Africa are two markets where USSEC sees big potential.

Whitley indicated that Africa is the one with more immediate potential.

He said USDA has had a presence in Africa for a long time through food assistance programs and capacity building projects.

“We have relationships built. But now I think we’re at a point where we have to transition those relationships into commercial market opportunities,” he said.

He noted that China, the European Union, Russia and Brazil are already in the region treating Africa as a customer rather than a development region.

Whitley said India has as many people as China but it is a vastly different market and he sees it as more of a long-term play.

The Western Producer

Tags: commodities, Canada, agricultural exports, forecast, U.S., red meat, China, corn, USDA, soybeans