Rapeseed prices support forecasts of reduced harvest in the EU and higher oil prices
June futures for Brent crude oil rose 4% over the week to a 5.5-month high of $89 per barrel amid Ukrainian UAV attacks on a refinery in Tatarstan and an Israeli strike on an Iranian general in Syria. Such news leads to a speculative rise in oil prices, which supports quotations for vegetable oils used in the production of biodiesel.
Strategie Grains lowered its forecast for EU rapeseed production in 2024 from 18.3 to 18.1 million tons, which is 10% lower than last year’s 19.9 million tons, due to lower than expected harvest in France. In order to compensate for the decline in production, the EU will increase imports of rapeseed from Ukraine and Australia in 2024/25 MY.
At the same time, the agency’s experts left the forecast of sunflower production in the EU in 2024 at 10.7 mln tons (10% higher than in 2023), and soybean production at 3.1 mln tons (9% higher than last year).
August futures for new crop rapeseed on the MATIF exchange yesterday rose 1.5% to 452 €/t or 487 $/t (+8.7% for the month), while the may – 1.7% to 445,75 €/t or 480 $/t (+6.8% for the month), as they remain under pressure from low soybean prices due to the large harvest in South America.
May canola futures on the Winnipeg stock exchange last week fell 2.4% to 635 CAD/t or 468 $/t, adding 6.5% for the month amid rising prices on MATIF. the price of canola supports the deficit of precipitation in some regions of Canada, resulting in November futures for canola of the new harvest are traded at 20 CAD/t more expensive than in may.
In Ukraine, prices for rapeseed delivered to the Black Sea ports rose to 17000 UAH/t, and in the western regions for EXW elevator for rail deliveries to Germany – to 15500-16000 UAH/t amid rising dollar on the interbank market.
Polish “farmers” continue to block the border of Ukraine with Poland, which supports the price of rapeseed in the EU at a high level, although the stocks of rapeseed in Ukraine is almost exhausted.
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