Rapeseed prices fell on forecasts of increased acreage in Ukraine, despite a decrease in the forecast for the canola harvest in Canada

World rapeseed prices remained stable during the month amid significant last year’s stocks and new crop arrivals, as well as the start of a seasonal decline in vegetable oil prices.

Rapeseed futures in Paris fell by 2% on forecasts of a 30% increase in the area of winter rape seeding in Ukraine, not reacting to a decrease in the forecast of canola production in Canada.

StatCan experts lowered the forecast for canola production in Canada in FY 2023/24 by 6.1% year-on-year to 17.6 million tonnes, which would still be the second highest in 9 years. Against the backdrop of a 3% increase in planted area to 21.9 million acres, or 8.87 million hectares, the canola crop was initially estimated at 20 million tons, but after the summer drought, the yield forecast in yesterday’s report was lowered by 8.8% to 35.4 bushels/ acre.

On the report, November canola futures rose 0.1% to CAD 812.6/t or $599/t (+3.6% for the month, -4% for the year). Despite a 7.9% year-over-year decline in the dollar price, canola is still not competitive for shipments to the EU, where prices are much lower.

November rapeseed futures on the Paris MATIF fell 2% yesterday to €464.75/t or $505/t (+1.3% for the month, -35% for the year). A year ago, quotations reached €602.25/t or $603.88/t, and two years ago – €573.25/t or $677.5/t.

In the current season, Ukraine plans to harvest a record 4.2 million tons of rapeseed, of which it will be able to export 3.8-4 million tons, mainly to the EU, since the Black Sea ports remain blocked.

According to a survey of agricultural producers conducted by the Ministry of Agriculture, the area of winter rapeseed for the 2024 harvest may increase compared to the previous season by 35% or by 0.5 million hectares to a record 1.9 million hectares against the background of a reduction in the area of wheat sowing due to low purchase prices in the current season.

The purchase prices for rape remain at the level of UAH 14,800-15,000/t or $365-370/t with delivery to the Danube ports, while last year they reached UAH 16,500-16,700/t or $465-470/t, and two years ago – UAH 20,000-20,500/t or $670-680/t.

Rape demand prices for DAP Germany or the Baltics remain at 390-410 €/t compared to 530-560 €/t a year ago.

Tags: Ukraine, EU, prices, Canada, rapeseed, Germany