Rapeseed prices fell by 5.6% under the pressure of forecasts of a good harvest in the new season

Against the backdrop of a sharp increase in oil prices, rapeseed prices on the European exchange, after reaching a minimum of €430/t on March 22, recovered to €490/t on Monday. Analysts had expected quotes to stabilize at this level, but by Wednesday they had fallen again by 8.2% on forecasts of an increase in the oil harvest in the new season.

Yesterday, May rapeseed futures on the Euronext exchange fell by 5.6% to €453/t or $493/t (-19% for the month) against the background of increased supply of oilseeds on the market.

According to the forecast of the European Commission, the production of oilseed crops in the EU in 2023/24 MY will grow by 7% compared to the previous season to a record 33.5 million tons, in particular, rapeseed – from 19.6 to 19.8 million tons. At the same time, the consumption of rapeseed will decrease from 25.3 to 24.8 million tons, imports from 6.2 to 5.8 million tons, while final stocks will grow from 0.5 to 0.8 million tons.

Soybean production in 2023/24 MY will increase compared to the previous season from 2.5 to 2.9 million tons, ending stocks – from 1.2 to 1.3 million tons, and domestic consumption and imports will remain at the level of last year – 16 .5 and 14 million tons, respectively.

It is expected that sunflower production will increase by 1.7 million tons to 10.9 million tons, its consumption – by 0.8 to 11.8 million tons, imports will decrease by 0.7 to 1.5 million tons, and ending stocks will remain at equal to 0.9 million tons.

Canola prices are falling somewhat more slowly, with May futures on the Winnipeg exchange yesterday down just 1.8% to CAD764/t or $567/t (-7.3% on the month).

Deliveries of Canadian canola to the EU have almost stopped against the background of higher prices for it and the permission of the US authorities to use in the production of biodiesel, in addition to soybean oil, also oil from Canadian canola. USDA experts believe that this will lead to an increase in the volume of canola processing in Canada by 2025 by 50% from 11.3 to 17 million tons, which, with an average harvest of 17-18 million tons, will reduce the volume of canola exports to other countries.

Canadian analysts expect the country’s canola crop to decline this season, as rainfall in key growing regions has been 50% below normal over the past 6 months, which could hurt yields if the dry weather continues.

Tags: USA, EU, prices, Canada, rapeseed