Rapeseed prices are falling under pressure from increased supply of the new crop

The decline in soybean prices on the Chicago Stock Exchange added pressure on canola and canola prices, which have been falling over the past month.

In Canada, favorable weather allows canola to be harvested without losses, which may improve the production forecast. And the dry conditions in Australia have not yet affected the quotation.

November rapeseed futures on the Paris MATIF have fallen 12.8% since early September, including last week – down 6.6% to €419.75/t or $445/t, but unfavorable weather for crop development may support them in Ukraine…

November canola futures in Winnipeg have fallen 14.9% since the start of September, but have fallen just 1.8% over the past week to CAD705/t, or $518/t.

November soybean futures in Chicago fell 8.3% to $467/t since September 1, and remain under pressure from active planting in Brazil and harvesting in the US.

Against the backdrop of the blockade of rapeseed supplies from Ukraine to neighboring EU countries and by sea, Australia is increasing canola exports. According to Oil World, in July the country exported 424,000 tons of canola, in August – 359,000 tons, which is still significantly higher than the 152,000 tons in August 2022. In total, in MY 2022/23, Australia exported 5.36 million tons of canola (of the projected 6.5 million tons), of which 2.77 million tons went to the EU and 0.77 million tons to Japan.

In Ukraine, rapeseed prices remain at the level of 330-345 $/t with delivery to Black Sea and Danube ports and 380-390-410 €/t with delivery to Baltic ports and factories in Germany. But the increase in the cost of road transport and the shortage of trucks due to the active harvesting of late crops reduce the volume of offers.

Some farmers have postponed the sale of canola until the new year, because they believe that 30-50% of the canola crops will be lost if there are no rains within 3 weeks against the background of positive temperatures.

As of October 9, 1.11 million hectares of the planned 1.45-1.9 million hectares were sown with winter rapeseed in Ukraine, and the state of rapeseed crops is unsatisfactory.