Rapeseed. 2023/24 MY summary and outlook for the new 2024/25 season

UkrAgroConsult

Article author:

Svitlana Kupreeva

Oilseed Market Analyst

The 2023/24 season was both exciting and unpredictable. The lack of official data on 2023 rapeseed areas, yield and production for most of the season led to rapidly changing estimates and a wide range of numbers. In addition, the discrepancies in the official rapeseed harvest figures, which occurred for the second year in a row, are becoming unusual.

 Rapeseed 2023 harvest (UkrAgroConsult estimate):

• Rapeseed areas – (+10% compared to 2022/23 MY);
• Yield – (+3.8%);
• Harvest – (+28%, the record);

Traditionally, rapeseed remains an export-oriented crop for Ukraine. However, the share of rapeseed exports in the 2023 harvest decreased to 79% due to the increased domestic processing.

The destinations of rapeseed exports in 2023/24 MY remained fairly stable compared to 2022/23 MY. EU countries continue to be the largest buyers of rapeseed.

In 2023/24 MY, domestic crush  was record high.

Exports of rapeseed oil and meal also were at record levels:

– rapeseed oil – 424 K mt (84 K mt  in 2022/23 MY);

– rapeseed meal – 360 K mt (67 K mt).

UkrAgroConsult forecast of 2024/25 MY

• Rapeseed areas – (-6% compared to 2023/24 MY).
• Yield –  (-7% compared to the average of the last three years). The yield number takes into account weather risks during the period of rapeseed growth and ripening, as well as the first harvesting reports.
• Rapeseed harvest– (-21% compared to 2023/24 MY).

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Tags: crop forecast, rapeseed meal, Ukraine, export, EU, rapeseed, rapeseed oil