Rape prices in Paris rose another 2% to a 5-month high

The intentions of the European Commission to limit the supply of Russian agricultural products to the EU market supported the prices not only of wheat, but also of rapeseed.

May rape futures on the Paris MATIF rose 2% yesterday to the highest level since October 2023 at €457/t or $495.3/t (+3.1% for the week, +10% during March). August futures are still trading at the same level, which indicates that the market is ignoring forecasts of a decrease in harvest.

Experts of the Coceral agency predict that, due to the reduction of sowing areas, rapeseed production in the EU and Great Britain in 2024 will decrease compared to the previous year by 1.1 to 20.2 million tons. At the same time, the MARS agency increased the forecast of the average yield of rapeseed in the EU in 2024 to 3.25 t/ha, which will exceed last year by 2% due to abundant rainfall and mild winter.

In the current season, rapeseed prices reached a maximum of €513/t in July and then fell to €407/t in February.

According to Oil World estimates, the volume of rapeseed processing in the EU in the first half of 2023/24 MY reached a record 12.8 million tons and exceeded the corresponding figure last year by 0.65 million tons. But in January – June, they will traditionally decrease and amount to 11.9-12 million tons, given the decrease in domestic supply and low volumes of canola imports from Canada and Australia.

According to the Canadian Grain Commission, in FY 2023/24 Canada exported 3.8 million tons of canola as of March 17, which is 34% lower than last year due to high oil prices.

Following canola prices, May canola futures on the Winnipeg exchange rose 2.4% yesterday to (+2.8% for the week, +10.5% for the month), so they are not interesting for EU importers.

High oil prices support rape quotes. May Brent crude futures rose 1.6% to $86.8/barrel yesterday, reversing losses of the past three sessions amid new attacks on Russian refineries and heightened geopolitical risks following the Crocus City Hall attack.

According to the CFTC, large speculators increased their net long position in Brent crude oil futures and options to a one-year high, limiting further price gains in the near term. Attacks on Russian refineries will increase the supply of crude oil on the world market and limit the supply of gasoline and diesel fuel inside the Russian Federation.

Therefore, markets should be prepared for a collapse in oil prices, as well as for oilseeds, against the backdrop of a seasonal increase in the supply of soybeans and palm oil in April and May.

Tags: prices, rapeseed