Australia’s wheat production potentially could lose up to 100,000 tonnes amid heavy rains across the southeastern portion of the country that have damaged the crop in the middle of harvest, informed industry analysts, who also said up to 1 million tonnes of milling wheat could end up as lower-quality feed grain.
High heat and low rainfall earlier in the year due to the El Niño weather pattern already had impacted production forecasts.
The US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) is projecting wheat production for 2023-24 at 26.5 million tonnes, similar to the previous 10-year average but down from the record-breaking 2022-23 crop of 39.7 million tonnes. Exports for one of the world’s major suppliers are seen at 18.5 million tonnes, down from 32 million tonnes last marketing year.
November has turned wetter, and in 24 hours between Nov. 28 and Nov. 29 more than 200 millimeters (7.9 inches) of rain fell in parts of New South Wales, and more than 80 millimeters (3.15 inches) in parts of Victoria, Australia’s weather bureau said.
The bureau said a severe weather warning remained in place for rain and damaging winds in parts of the southeast, where the harvest is in full swing. Heavy rain keeps large machinery from getting into the fields, and crops remaining in fields can grow fungus or sprout.
“Farmers are parked up. You can’t harvest a paddock with sodden ground,” said Andrew Whitelaw at consultants Episode 3, adding that 50,000 to 130,000 tonnes of wheat could be lost, and half a million tonnes downgraded to lower quality.
Ole Houe at IKON Commodities said as much as 100,000 tonnes could disappear and 1 million tonnes may be degraded from milling to feed wheat.
Rod Baker at Australian Crop Forecasters said that he was more optimistic, but that up to 50,000 tonnes could be lost and 500,000 tonnes lowered to feed quality.
All the analysts cautioned that estimates could change and depended on weather in the coming days.
